The Best Day in Retail May Be Yet to Come: December 22

Christmas this year is poised to be a strange bird. It was already odd that Thanksgiving was so late in November, thanks to the calendar putting the last Thursday at the 28^th. That made Black Friday late, and actually put Cyber Monday in December this year. Such a development not only made retail gains for November look anemic at just 0.2%, well below projected gains of 0.5%, but also cast a pallor on the entire holiday shopping season. New reports from Reuters, meanwhile, suggest that this year's Super Saturday—the Saturday before Christmas—might ultimately prove to be the best shopping day yet for retailers.

One More Chance to Get It Right

The logic behind a huge Saturday in retail shopping is certainly sound; the highly-compressed nature of the holiday season this year left businesses with little time to present their best deals forward, and likewise left the shopper with little time to actually hit the stores. So with one last Saturday between today and Christmas Day, the first day of Hanukkah, and the first day of Kwanzaa, it should be an absolute panic for shoppers looking to land that last-minute gift.

The Saturday before Christmas, whenever that actually lands, has long proven a big day for shopping as people take their last major day off before the holidays hit to shop accordingly. The combination of a compressed calendar and an already-popular shopping day has driven what amounts to a consensus that this should be huge.

There's also a bit of geopolitical help here; stores have been holding pricing steady in the wake of the ongoing US-China trade war, a point that might have potentially jacked up prices on imported items. However, that same price stabilization might have impacted any kind of discounting efforts, resulting in fewer doorbusters, poorer deal quality, and a general lack of inducement to get shoppers in the door, or even on the site.

Customer Growth Partners President Craig Johnson, for example, expects $34 billion to come in on Super Saturday alone. That would actually beat Black Friday's figures of $31.5 billion, and includes both in-store and online purchases. It excludes, however, auto sales and shopping-related sales like gas stations and restaurants.

This Rising Tide Won't Lift All Boats to the Same Level

Johnson also pointed out that “mall traffic is weak” overall, though further noted that those who are hitting the malls are actually buying more when they do. This is part of a strong consumer demand, but thanks to that sluggish foot traffic, the end result is a reduced impact for mall stores.

So while overall spending and sales are up, the impact of this won't be felt evenly. However, it should at least provide a boost to just about everybody's outlook, even if it does little more than prolong the inevitable. Better yet, the stores themselves are contributing to this development, reports suggest, by augmenting staffing and keeping staff in stores longer. That increases payroll expenses and puts more cash in workers' wallets, a virtuous cycle if ever there was one.

We've already seen the irregular rises happen in recent days with American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) looking downward and with Children's Place (NASDAQ: PLCE) having trouble restarting the Gymboree (NASDAQ: GYMB) brand as it had hoped.

Yet by like token, we're also seeing stand-alone retailers like Target (NYSE: TGT)—including a new one set to hit Times Square—and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) beat estimates and push on through the holiday season. Target's even doing so well that it's on a killer pace to open new stores. Stand-alone isn't a magic bullet for success, however, as we've seen in recent days with GameStop's issues.

Expectations and Reality Only Occasionally Meet

This year has demonstrated, quite effectively, that most of the old models aren't holding water anymore. We've seen Black Friday actually deliver a blow to retail stocks in a time when just about everyone should be seeing shopping surge. We've seen retailers trading profit for foot traffic, engaging in price wars in a bid to get shoppers in the door.  We've seen the fundamental nature of retail begin to shift away from the stores, away from Black Friday doorbuster deals, and head online instead.

The calendar has thrown a curve, there's no doubt about that one, but there are plenty of systemic issues that are cropping up as well. This entire holiday season should have retailers rethinking their strategies very carefully lest next year—which actually won't be much better as Cyber Monday will be the last day of November instead of the first day of December—prove even worse with less to blame.