Boeing: 4 Reasons It Will Be the Comeback Story of 2025

Key Points

• Boeing stocks end 2024 with a 30% loss but could make a strong comeback in 2025 with the Trump policy to boost oil and gas supplies under his "drill baby drill" initiative. 
• Boeing spent a month training and certifying factor workers after the strike to get all production back online on Dec. 18, 2024. 
• Boeing has over half a trillion dollars in backlog orders for planes. 

The Boeing Co. NYSE: BA is coming off a rocky 2024 as it got plied with regulatory issues, terrible public relations, regulatory scrutiny from the FAA and NTSB and a worker’s strike that cost the company billions of dollars. The aerospace sector leader started 2024 on a high note, trading at $250.15 before a cascade of unfortunate events caused shares to collapse to two-year lows when it sank to $137.03 on Nov. 14, 2024.

Boeing had gotten a new CEO in aerospace veteran Kelly Ortberg, formerly of Rockwell Collins, while reporting a kitchen sink quarter to set the bar low. The stock has since climbed back up to $180.72, helping it trim losses to just over 30% on the year. Here are four reasons why Boeing could be the comeback story of 2025.

1) The Bad News Is Behind Them, and the Bar Is Set Low Heading Into 2025

The end of the 33,000 machinist workers strike on Nov. 4, 2024, helped conclude the costly production halt of its Boeing 737, 777, and 767 airplanes out of its Everett and Renton factories in Seattle. The shutdown cost Boeing an estimated $5.5 billion in earnings, tipping the company's losses to over $6 billion in its third-quarter 2024 earnings report. This prompted Boeing to raise over $20 billion in cash and implement a 10% workforce reduction, cutting 17,000 jobs.

On Dec. 17, 2024, Boeing Commercial Airplanes division CEO Stephanie Pope announced that all production lines are back online, stating, “We have taken time to ensure all manufacturing teammates are current on training and certifications while positioning inventory at the optimal levels for smooth production.”

The ramp-up is expected to be gradual heading into 2025. The company is rumored to be targeting production of its 737 MAX aircraft to 37 planes a month by May 2025. While the company insists on methodically ramping up production, critics fear it may again repeat mistakes of the past, trying to overbuild planes to meet deadlines. Public and reputational perception will be critical moving forward as the company can't afford any more missteps.

2) Boeing’s Backlog Continues to Swell Over Half a Trillion Dollars

Even during the strike, Boeing had a backlog of over 6,200 airplanes, totaling more than half a trillion dollars. Being the only American-made game in town, most of its customers had to grin and bear the delay in deliveries, hoping for the end of the strike. Some of its largest orders are from Southwest Airlines Co. NYSE: LUV with 432 planes; Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE: DAL, waiting on 100 planes, Emirates waiting on 240 planes; and United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ: UAL waiting on 497 planes.

The deals continue to keep coming in. On Dec. 19, 2024, China Airlines announced an estimated $12 billion order split between Boeing and Airbus. The airline carrier ordered 10 Boeing 777-9 planes and four 777-8 freighter planes along with 10 Airbus A350-1000s from rival Airbus. On Dec. 19, 2024, Pegasus Airlines also announced a potential $18 billion order for up to 200 Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft, comprised of 100 firm orders and options for 100 more. These are the largest jets in the 737 MAX line. This is the largest plane purchase agreement for the Turkish low-cost airline, which it awarded to Boeing over Airbus.

3) Lower Oil Prices Can Boost Airline Margins and Grow Orders for Boeing

The two most expensive operating costs for an airline are labor and fuel costs. Unlike labor, fuel prices can fluctuate significantly based on a multitude of factors, thereby impacting margins and profits. While airlines can partially hedge for volatility, they are always exposed to oil price changes.

Fuel prices impact the financial planning and forecasts for airlines. When prices are low, margins expand, enabling airlines to budget for fleet enhancement and expansion. The Trump administration is planning on growing the oil supply as it lifts fracking and drilling restrictions across federal lands, embracing Trump's "drill baby drill" theme to vastly increase oil and gas production, thereby lowering fuel prices.

4) BA Stock Is Triggering a Head and Shoulders Reversal Breakout

A head and shoulders pattern is comprised of three peaks connected by a neckline on the bounces. The first peak is called a left shoulder followed by a pullback and bounce forming the neckline. The second and highest peak is the head, which falls back down and bounces again at the neckline to form the right shoulder, which is the final lower peak.

Connecting the bounce levels in a horizontal line forms the neckline. A breakdown occurs when the stock collapses under the neckline. A reversal occurs if the stock bounces off the neck after rising through the right shoulder peak.

BA formed its left shoulder peak at $243.10, the head peak at $167.54, and the right shoulder peak at $196.95. Shares fell back down to retest the neckline, hitting $137.03 swing low, but staged a rally back up to 180.72. The right shoulder overlaps with the daily anchored VWAP at $185.98, which is the breakout level if BA can surge and stay above that level. The daily RSI has been slowly rising at the 77-band. Fibonacci (Fib) pullback support levels are at $171.16, $159.32, $142.46, and $132.43.

Actionable Options Strategies: Bullish investors can consider using cash-secured puts at the Fib pullback support levels to buy the dip. If assigned the shares, then writing covered call at upside Fib levels executes a wheel strategy for income since there is no dividend.