Boeing Stock Is Edging Out Airbus Again, Here’s How

Key Points

• Boeing’s assembly lines are back online and delivered 45 aircrafts in January 2025, surpassing Airbus, who only delivered 25 planes.
• The FAA capped Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft production at 30 per month following the Alaska Air incident in January 2024.
• Boeing’s stock formed a capitulation bottom in November 2024 after the IAM union strike ended.

The Boeing Co. NYSE: BA faced a lot of turbulence in 2024, from quality control issues, nightmare PR and the IAM union strike. The aerospace sector giant endured and resolved the union strike as the 33,000 striking mechanics returned to the assembly lines, bringing all systems back online in 2025. Although the company is still undergoing its 10% headcount reduction, the $500 billion backlog is more than enough to keep the company busy.

While Airbus SE OTCMKTS: EADSY took control of the oligopoly during the strikes, delivering more than double the number of aircraft at 766 than Boeing, it appears that Boeing is once again edging them out in its recovery.

Boeing Delivers More Planes Than Airbus in January

For January 2025, Boeing delivered 45 new aircraft versus 25 delivered by Airbus to 17 customers, according to Aerotime. Boeing delivered 30 aircraft in December 2024. It also marks the first time Boeing surpassed Airbus in plane deliveries since March of 2023. In January 2025, Boeing delivered 40 Boeing 737 MAX jets to customers including United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ: UAL, Air Lease Co. NYSE: AL and Southwest Airlines Co. NYSE: LUV, which exclusively flies only Boeing 737 MAX planes. This was the highest number of monthly aircraft deliveries since December of 2023 when they delivered 105 aircraft.

This was right before the fallout from the Alaska Air Group Inc. NYSE: ALK incident on Jan 5, 2024, when a defective door plug blew out of a Boeing 737 Max 9 airplane mid-flight. This incident started the cascade of incidents in 2024 and the FAA production cap of 38 MAX jets per month. Of the 40 737 MAX planes, 10 had been in storage. Boeing doesn’t expect to hit the cap until later in 2025.

Closing Out 2024 With a Final Kitchen Sink Quarter

On Jan 20, 2025, Boeing reported its fourth quarter of 2024 results, which were very ugly, but shares rallied afterward as the market viewed it as the last kitchen sink quarter for the company. The company reported a non-GAAP loss of $5.90 per share, which monumentally missed consensus analyst estimates for a loss of $3.22 per share. They missed estimates by $2.68.

Revenues sank 30.8% year-on-year (YoY) to $15.24 billion missing consensus estimates for $15.80 billion. The shortcomings were a result of the IAM work stoppage and agreement, charges for certain defense programs and costs associated with its layoffs. Operating cash flow was negative $3.5 billion, and free cash flow was negative $4.1 billion.

Segment Metrics Were Also a Kitchen Sink Disaster

For Q4 segment performance:

The Commercial Airplanes segment’s revenues fell 55% YoY to $4.76 billion with a negative 43.9% operating margin. By the end of the quarter, the 737 program resumed production as strikes were resolved at the beginning of November. The 787 program finished the year at a production rate of five planes per month with plans to expand its South Carolina operations. The Commercial Airplanes segment booked 204 net orders in the quarter, which included 100 of the 737-10 airplanes for Pegasus Airlines and 30 of the Boeing 787-9 plans for flydubai airlines. The segment also delivered 57 planes in the quarter, and the backlog was comprised of more than 5,500 plans valued at around $435 billion.

The Defense, Space and Security segment revenues fell 20% YoY to $5.41 billion, with a negative 41.9% operating margin. During the quarter, the company won a U.S. Air Force order for 15 KC-46A Tankers and secured an order for seven P-8A Poseidon aircraft from the U.S. Navy. The segment's backlog was $64 billion, and 29% of the orders came from customers outside the United States.

The Global Services segment's revenue rose 6% YoY to $5.12 billion, with a 19.5% operating margin driven by higher commercial volume and mix. The segment secured awards for the U.S. Air Force's F-15 Japan Super Interceptor upgrade services.

President Trump’s Made In America policies favor Boeing, with three of its manufacturing plants located in the United States. Boeing's Tianjin, China plant is a joint venture with Aviation Industry Corp. of China (AVIC) and makes aircraft for the Chinese market there. However, President Trump is levying another 10% on Chinese import tariffs in March, which may impact Boeing as it imports over 10,000 different aircraft parts from China.