Citi Analysts Turn More Bullish on Walmart Stock: Time to Buy?

Key Points

• Walmart has surged over 51% YTD, outperforming its sector and the broader market, with Citi analysts recently upgrading their bullish outlook.
• Citi raised Walmart’s price target to $98 from $75, citing strong market share gains in groceries and growth in high-margin businesses like e-commerce and advertising.
• While momentum remains strong, Walmart's elevated P/E ratios suggest a potential pullback may offer a better entry point, but long-term growth prospects remain compelling.

Walmart NYSE: WMT, the consumer defensive giant, has been on an impressive run in 2024, surging over 51% year-to-date (YTD) and outperforming both its sector and the broader market. Recently, analysts at Citi upgraded their stance on the stock, becoming even more bullish after already being long-time supporters. They raised their price target on Walmart, citing significant growth ahead, and believe the company is well-positioned to continue dominating the retail space, gaining more market share.

Despite Walmart's nearly 50% rally over the past year, Citi’s recent upgrade begs the question: Is it still a good time to buy?

Citi Analysts Turn More Bullish on Walmart

According to Citi’s latest research note, Walmart is "well-positioned" for future growth despite potential consumer uncertainty. Citi raised its price target to $98 from $75, highlighting Walmart’s substantial market share gains, especially in its grocery segment and solid e-commerce presence. Analysts noted that Walmart has been capitalizing on its strength in food and grocery by offering value in an inflationary environment, all while enhancing convenience with services like curbside pickup.

Beyond groceries, Citi points out that Walmart is in the early stages of building out several high-margin growth businesses, including marketplace operations, fulfillment services, data services, and advertising. According to the analysts, these initiatives will help Walmart maintain its competitive edge for years to come.

Citi's bullish commentary comes just over a month after Walmart posted its second-quarter earnings, where the retailer posted solid results. Walmart exceeded expectations with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.67, beating the $0.65 consensus, while revenue hit $169.3 billion, up 4.7% year-over-year. CEO Doug McMillon highlighted that each segment of the business is growing, from in-store and club sales to e-commerce. McMillon also emphasized that newer ventures like advertising and membership services are adding to the company’s diverse profit streams.

For the upcoming quarter, Walmart expects earnings per share to fall between $0.51 and $0.52, slightly below the consensus of $0.54. However, the company raised its full-year forecast, projecting EPS of $2.35 to $2.43, up from the previous range of $2.23 to $2.37.

Time to Buy Walmart?

From a technical standpoint, Walmart’s momentum is strong, with the stock trading just over 2% away from its 52-week high and above all key moving averages. However, given the recent surge, it may be wise for investors to wait for a pullback, possibly closer to its rising 200-day moving average of around $75. Walmart’s current P/E ratio of 41.45 and forward P/E of 29.32 are elevated, further suggesting that waiting for a pullback could offer a more favorable entry point.

Still, Walmart’s longer-term growth story remains compelling. The retailer continues to raise its guidance, gain market share, and diversify into higher-margin businesses, making it a potential top pick for capital appreciation and income generation through its dividend. Even with the stock’s significant rally, its combination of strong fundamentals and future growth potential makes it a solid choice for long-term investors.

While short-term caution might be advisable, Walmart's overall bullish outlook and dominance in key segments make it a stock to watch closely for any potential buying opportunities.