Coming in Hot: Retail Data Drives Momentum in 3 E-Commerce Stocks

Key Points

• Recent retail sales data shows strong growth in online commerce, signaling a healthy U.S. consumer and opportunity in e-commerce stocks.
• Amazon, Etsy, and Shopify each offer unique value propositions, from safe large-cap exposure to underpriced growth and high-margin premium plays.
• Analyst upgrades and institutional buying underscore bullish sentiment, pointing to potential double-digit upside across all three stocks.

When the market finds itself at a turning point, investors watch economic data more closely than ever. 

Today, investors are wondering where the new Federal Reserve (the Fed) rate cuts will take both the economy and the stock market—and the latest numbers are sending a strong signal.

The most recent retail sales data report shows the best growth rate since 2023, surprising many who assumed the consumer was weakening. 

But this data means very little if you don’t know exactly which industries have driven this growth. A deeper look reveals that this jump is actually due to e-commerce, suggesting that the average American consumer may be in better shape than headlines let on.

And that’s where the investment opportunity lies: with industry leaders like Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN, Etsy Inc. NASDAQ: ETSY, and Shopify Inc. NASDAQ: SHOP. 

Amazon: The Anchor of E-Commerce Momentum

The most obvious choice for this list, Amazon is proving its e-commerce dominance once again. Amazon is the clear leader in online retail in terms of relative price action, as it now trades at 96% of its 52-week high, achieving a quarterly performance of 9% despite its substantial size.

Its $2.4 trillion market cap helps buffer volatility significantly, making it a reliable pick for those looking for safer exposure to online shopping growth. But that size also limits the amount of upside acceleration, making it the safest pick on this list. What Amazon lacks in explosive upside, it makes up for in stability.

Wall Street agrees, and the smart money is paying attention. Truist analyst Youssef Squali recently reiterated a Buy rating and gave AMZN a price target of $270, implying a 17% upside from current levels and a new 52-week high. Following the retail data release, Silicon Valley Partners also boosted their Amazon stake by 1.4%. bringing its total holding $36.7 million in shares.

Etsy: Massive Growth Potential, Still Underpriced

While Amazon provides stability, Etsy offers outsized earnings growth at a bargain valuation.

Etsy is projected to grow its earnings per share (EPS) from 25 cents to 97 cents in Q4 2025—a massive 288% jump—yet the stock trades at just 23.6x forward earnings, indicating that growth hasn't been fully priced in. In comparison, Amazon trades at 36.7x. 

High-growth companies typically trade at a premium compared to giants like Amazon, whose percentage growth in EPS cannot be as large as Etsy’s due to the law of large numbers. And that disparity is what makes Etsy one of the most compelling value-growth plays in the e-commerce space.

This might be why Holocene Advisors initiated a $266 million stake in Etsy in August 2025, making up 5.4% of the company. That’s not just a bet on Etsy—it’s a bet that this retail sales data is the start of something much bigger

Shopify: Expensive for a Reason

Shopify presents an entirely different valuation picture than Etsy. Trading at a forward P/E multiple of 132x, it is the most expensive name in this list. But in this market, “expensive” often means “essential.”

Shopify powers the backend of global e-commerce, benefitting entrepreneurs, businesses, and consumers alike. Its platform advantage creates a moat that investors are willing to pay for.

Citigroup analyst Tyler Radke agrees, assigning SHOP stock a price target of $195, offering 32% upside from current levels. Shopify has an analyst consensus rating of Moderate Buy, and a consensus price target of $152.

While Shopify’s valuation isn’t for the faint of heart, the company’s position in the market justifies the premium for investors looking for high-reward plays in a high-growth sector.