Don’t Fear, New Highs for Fastenal Will Soon Be Here

Key Points

• Fastenal had a tepid Q1 compared to analysts' forecasts but showed improving business momentum and technologically gained traction. 
• The company has increased inventory and is making supply chain adjustments to help mitigate tariffs. 
• The stock price surged on the news, aided by high volume, with MACD and stochastic indicators confirming the signal. 

Fastenal NASDAQ: FAST faces headwinds and hurdles like any business in 2025, but it navigates the situation better than most, driven by execution and technology. The company leaned into an FMI or Fastenal Managed Inventory footprint expansion in FQ1, compounded by improving client counts and penetration tied to execution and technology, to sustain growth in a tepid-growth environment.

The outlook remains favorable for this supply distribution stock because of the diversified business model and efforts to mitigate tariffs, including pricing actions and supply chain adjustments. 

The takeaway for investors is that this Dividend Aristocrat’s business growth, capital returns, and capital return growth remain on track, and its stock has been set up to rally higher. The post-release activity not only confirmed support with a large green candle but did so on extremely high volume and indicators aligned with the signal. Indicators like stochastic and MACD show a market in the early stages of a bullish trend-following swing that could keep the market moving higher well into the year's second half. 

Fastenal: Tepid Results Versus a Tough Comp

Fastenal’s reported $1.96 billion in revenue is tepid compared to the analysts' estimates, but versus a tough comp in the prior year, which included an extra selling day. Adjusted for that, daily sales are up 5%, driven by strengths in all reporting comparisons. Segmentally, all businesses grew, with Safety up 7.1% on technology-driven strengths, followed by a 6.7% growth in Other and a slower 1.1% advance in the core Fasteners.

Regarding end markets, growth in large, contracted clients came in at 8.5% and offset a decline in smaller ones, while three of four end markets grew. The only end market to contract is non-residential construction. 

Margin news is also good. The company experienced supply chain and product-mix headwinds but was able to mitigate the damage. The gross margin contracts by only 40 bps, and the operating margin by only 50 bps, with much of the operating margin loss attributed to the number of selling days.

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The critical details are that gross profit grew by 2.6% and operating profit by nearly 1% to provide sufficient cash flow to sustain and improve the balance sheet. 

The company didn’t give specific guidance for Q2 or the year but remains optimistic with its commentary. Additionally, pricing actions are expected to add 3% to 4% to the top line, and the impact may accelerate in the back half. The company plans to continue increasing the FMI footprint, targeting another 700 basis point contribution gain to roughly 68% of revenue by year’s end. This is significant because of the impact on revenue and margin. 

Fastenal Dividend Growth Helps Sustain the Uptrend

Fastenal’s dividend growth slowed in F2025, but it and the payout are reliable and sustainable. The yield is near 2.2%, with shares near $81, and the distribution growth rate is about the same. The only red flag is the payout ratio, which is about 80% but offset by balance sheet health. The company’s balance sheet is a fortress with ample capitalization, almost no long-term debt, and low liability. Long-term debt is about 3.35X equity, which leaves the cash flow unimpeded for dividend increases. 

Institutional buying will also help sustain Fastenal’s uptrend in 2025. The institutions bought on balance in Q4 2024, Q1 and Q2 2025, ramping their activity to a multi-year high in Q1. They are among the buyers in early April and will likely continue to push the stock higher as the year progresses. Analyst trends also align with a rising stock price, including increasing coverage, firming sentiment, and upward price target revisions.

In Q2 2025, the question is whether analysts will continue to lift their targets or cap the market for this stock. The analyst consensus assumed fair value near $77.50, with a high-end range aligning with current all-time high stock prices.