Eyes on the Sky: AST SpaceMobile Prepares for Commercial Launch

Key Points

• AST SpaceMobile has compiled a 95% year-to-date gain, and while a pullback may be underway, its medium- and long-term prospects are promising. 
• The pre-revenue company’s strategic agreements and government contracts point to a cash-rich future.
• Agreements are in place with the U.S. government, AT&T, Vodafone, and Rakuten, among others.

The S&P 500’s communication services sector is enjoying a strong year. Its 16.79% YTD gain is tops among all 11 sectors, with some big-name companies leading the way. T-Mobile US NASDAQ: TMUS is up nearly 15%, AT&T NYSE: T is up more than 27%, and Netflix NASDAQ: NFLX is up nearly 38%. 

But one under-the-radar communications stock has outpaced them all. And for those looking for a piece of the burgeoning space-based cellular broadband network industry, AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS and its 95.66% YTD gain have been grabbing the attention of investors in search of a Starlink alternative.

ASTS: Tapping Into the Final Frontier

The satellite internet market is forecast to grow by a CAGR of 13.9% from 2025 to 2030. Much of that momentum is being driven by demand for rural connectivity, the need for high-speed broadband in remote areas, and a growing reliance on digital services across numerous industries.

When most people think of space-based internet services, Elon Musk’s Starlink—a subsidiary of privately held SpaceX—often comes to mind. However, unless you’re an accredited investor or knowledgeable about the secondary market, securing shares of SpaceX is no easy task. 

AST offers retail investors an alternative. It’s positioning itself as a differentiator, developing the first and only end-to-end space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to standard mobile phones. Whereas Starlink requires use of a satellite dish and modem, AST SpaceMobile will provide direct-to-device technology, which integrates with any smartphone. 

Strategic Partnerships Are Key to AST SpaceMobile’s Success

The company’s revenue model embraces a strategic wholesale approach. Rather than providing services directly to users in competition with existing mobile carriers, AST has agreements in place to link its satellite network with telecom giants, including AT&T in North America, Vodafone NASDAQ: VOD in Europe, and Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNY in Japan. 

Collaborations with Arianespace, the Indian Space Research Organisation, and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin are in place for low-Earth-orbit satellite deployment. The company’s Block2 Bluebird is being transferred to India this month with a target launch window of three to four months after arrival. 

Another important agreement came in February when AST announced a $43 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency. Of course, that sum isn’t going to turn the company into Palantir NASDAQ: PLTR overnight, but having federal contracts on the books before offering its broadband services certainly doesn’t hurt its appeal. The deal followed the successful testing of AST’s BlueWalker-3, demonstrating the capabilities of the company’s technology for use in specialized government applications. 

This summer, AST informed the U.S. FCC that it plans to launch up to 20 of its second-generation Bluebirds through year-end, with the goal of offering commercial services in early 2026. So while AST is currently pre-revenue, that early 2026 target is perhaps one reason why the stock has become popular among the smart money.

Over the past 12 months, inflows of $1.59 billion from institutional buyers have outpaced outflows of $354.29 million. 

According to its Q2 presentation, the company is currently sitting on more than $1.5 billion in balance sheet cash until its services are available. 

Promising Technicals Despite a Pullback

Since its five-year low in May 2024, the stock has rocketed an astounding 1,911.50%. But it hasn’t been a straight line up. After a massive run-up in August, the stock traded sideways in the $20 to $32 range until enjoying its next leg up, which began in late May. 

In July, ASTS established secondary support after pulling back to the $41 area, where it is currently trading. Primary support is around $20. If the secondary support that’s currently being tested amid the pullback fails. The stock could fall past its 200-day moving average (yellow line in the chart below) before finding primary support and giving back 51% of its YTD gain.   

However, the stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 34.72 is approaching oversold (30 or below), as shown by the green arrow to the right in the one-year chart above. The previous two times that happened, buyers stepped in and pushed ASTS back up (as indicated by the two green arrows to the left). 

After a run-up like the stock experienced this year, retracement is plausible (if not likely). However, such a pullback would be unlikely to break the overall upward trend, nor the looming momentum the stock should enjoy once the company begins generating revenue. 

AST SpaceMobile receives a consensus Moderate Buy rating from 10 analysts, with five assigning it a Buy, five assigning it a Hold, and none assigning it a Sell.