General Mills Stock Drops After Revenue Miss in Fiscal Q4 2024

Key Points

• General Mills beat on earnings per share estimates but missed on revenue.
• The firm increased its dividend, further strengthening its outsized dividend yield compared to its industry.
• The firm hopes to continue achieving cost savings in fiscal 2025 but doesn't expect meaningful increases in earnings.

General Mills  NYSE: GIS lies within the consumer staples sector and ranks in the top 10 largest food and beverage companies in the United States by revenue. In 2024, the share price is essentially where it started for the year, with a total return of just under 0%.

But it hasn’t simply been trading sideways. Year-to-date returns went up into the 12% range in April and May, but fell significantly over the past five weeks. Since releasing its fiscal year 2024 earnings on the morning of Jun. 26, shares have fallen by over 5%. Let’s look at General Mills' business lines, recent financial statements, and future outlook to contextualize this reaction and analyze its prospects going forward.

General Mills’ Business Segments and Products

General Mills lists four segments in its annual report: North America Retail, International, Pet, and North America Foodservice. The firm controls more than 100 unique brands, including Cheerios, Bisquick, and Häagen-Dazs, and operates in over 100 countries. The North America Retail segment is by far the largest, accounting for 77% of operating profit. The company's Pet segment comes in at 12%, North America Foodservice at 8%, and International at 3%.

North America Retail focuses on many food products, including ready-to-eat cereals, frozen foods, and shelf-stable vegetables. The firm’s primary customers are grocery stores and mass merchandisers. Due to the nature of its business, input costs for its products can fluctuate widely based on the prices of commodities like wheat, corn, sugar, and other agricultural products.

The report states that while seasonality affects some product sales, overall demand remains generally balanced throughout the year.

General Mills' Earnings: Earning Per Share Beat, Revenue Miss, and Dividend Increase

Earnings per share (EPS) came in slightly above the consensus $0.99 estimate at $1.01. The firm missed revenue considerably, coming in at $4.71 billion versus $4.85 billion expected. Over the full year, net sales were down 1%, but adjusted operating profit grew by 4% despite this. An increase in net price realization and mix drove this. This means the company was able to charge higher prices for its products, net of any discounts provided. Although the firm sold at higher prices, lower sales volume offset this, resulting in a decrease in revenue in the end. A $241 million reduction in SG&A expenses boosted adjusted operating profit.

Yet, on a quarterly basis, compared to Q4 2023, both revenue and adjusted operating profit showed meaningful declines. Revenue was down 6%, and adjusted operating profit was down 10%. Adjusted diluted EPS was also down 10%. A big disappointment came with the international segment. The firm reported a 68% decline in operating profit from Q4 2023. Brazil's and China's harsh environments contributed significantly to this outcome. In Brazil, customers heavily reduced inventory. In China, a downturn in consumer sentiment in the second half of the year seriously harmed sales of the firm's premium brands like Häagen Dazs.

Another notable point from this release relates to the firm's dividend. The firm announced an increase in its dividend, raising its dividend yield to 3.74%. Increases like this are not uncommon, as the company’s dividend has grown by 4.5% annually over the last three years. The firm offers a solid return of capital to investors in the form of income that's more than double its industry average. The average dividend yield for Processed & Packaged Goods firms sits at 1.8%.

General Mills' Fiscal 2025 Outlook: Gradual Volume Recovery and Cost Savings Expected

General Mills predicts that it will gradually recover from sales volume declines over fiscal 2025. It also hopes to drive continued savings in cost of goods sold (COGS) of 4% to 5%. This will be achieved through its Holistic Margin Management program (HMM), which allowed the firm to mitigate inflation in 2024. It expects this level of savings will increase margins as it sees COGS inflation being in the range of 3% to 4%.

But it doesn’t expect to increase earnings significantly. The guidance midpoint shows adjusted diluted EPS remaining flat over fiscal 2025. Six analysts updated their ratings after the release. Their average price target for the stock is $68. This implies a 7% upside from the Jun. 27, 2024, closing price.