Gold Breaks $3,000: What's Driving the Rally and How to Invest?

Key Points

• The price of Gold per ounce surpassed $3,000 amid economic uncertainty, central bank buying, and geopolitical risks.
• Investors can gain exposure through SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) for direct gold price tracking or VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) for mining stock exposure.
• Both have significantly outperformed the market, with GLD up nearly 38% in the past year, while GDX has surged 47%.

Gold shattered the $3,000 mark for the first time on Friday, reaching a historic high as investors continue to invest in the metal as a safe haven. The surge comes amid ongoing economic uncertainty fueled by trade wars, tariffs, and broader market instability.

Long-term gold investors are seeing strong returns. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF NYSEARCA: GLD has outpaced the S&P 500, climbing nearly 14% year-to-date and over 37% in the past year, extending a now long-term trend.

What’s Driving Gold’s Relentless Rally?

U.S. economic fears and trade tensions did not drive the surge past $3,000 per ounce alone. Several global factors contributed to the rally.

Aggressive central bank purchases, especially from China, which has increased reserves for four consecutive months through February, have played a significant role. Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, alongside escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, have further boosted gold’s appeal as a haven.

Another catalyst is expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, following a significant reduction in late 2024. Lower rates make gold more attractive than yield-bearing assets like bonds. Additionally, strong demand from retail and institutional investors and industrial use of technology add to the momentum. Limited new mining supply further supports the price surge, with forecasts suggesting gold could reach $3,200 if the trend continues.

Goldman Sachs recently noted the potential upside risk to its $3,100 end-2025 base case scenario and its $3,100-$3,300 forecast range. "We believe that central bank gold buying will remain structurally higher than before the freezing of Russian central bank reserves in 2022. We think this is the case even after a potential Russia- Ukraine ceasefire," the bank stated.

How Can Investors Gain Exposure to Gold?

Investors looking to gain exposure to gold without the burden of physically storing it have multiple options. They can invest in gold ETFs or mining companies.

1. Investing in a Gold ETF

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF NYSEARCA: GLD directly exposes gold’s price movements without requiring physical storage. The fund aims to reflect the performance of gold bullion minus expenses and has a net expense ratio of 0.4% with $86 billion in assets under management.

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Mirroring gold’s performance, GLD hit new all-time highs on Friday, bringing its YTD gain to 13.67%. Over the past year, it has surged nearly 38%, significantly outperforming both the broader market and the tech sector.

2. Investing in a Gold Miners ETF

A gold miners ETF could be a suitable option for investors interested in exposure to gold mining operations while maintaining diversification.

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF NYSEARCA: GDX tracks the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, which comprises global gold mining companies. Unlike GLD, which directly tracks gold prices, GDX provides exposure to gold mining stocks. While mining stocks can experience amplified gains when gold prices rise, they can also be more volatile due to operational risks and production costs.

GDX is just 1.3% shy of its 52-week high and has surged almost 29% YTD, gaining over 47% in the past year. Its top holdings include some of the world’s largest gold mining companies, including Newmont -11.8 % weighting, Agnico Eagle Mines -11.7 %, Barrick Gold -7.5 %, and Wheaton Precious Metals -7.5 %.

With a Moderate Buy consensus rating and a price target of $43.64, GDX has attracted significant institutional interest. Over the past 12 months, the ETF saw net inflows of $2.09 billion versus outflows of $1.11 billion. In addition to diversification and strong recent performance, GDX offers a 0.92% dividend yield and has a net expense ratio of 0.51%.

The Bottom Line

Gold’s record-breaking rally reflects deepening global uncertainties, aggressive central bank buying, and shifting monetary policies. For investors looking to capitalize on gold’s strength, ETFs like GLD and GDX provide accessible and diversified ways to gain exposure to the precious metal without the complexities of physical ownership.

As gold’s momentum continues, these investment vehicles remain strong options for those looking to hedge against economic volatility.