Here’s Where Xpeng (NASDAQ: XPEV) Stock Looks Attractive

Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker Xpeng NYSE: XPEV stock has pulled back from its all-time highs but still continues to outperform the benchmark S&P 500 index NYSEARCA: SPY. In its limited time as a publicly listed Company (ADRs), it has grown to one of the three most prominent Chinese EV makers actually producing and delivering vehicles. The other two are NIO NYSE: NIO and Li Auto NYSE: LI. As of yet, they are not delivering EVs to the U.S. which is lead by Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). The momentum in EV stocks tends to overlook that most of these companies are still in concept stage or yet to rollout commercial production at scale. The advent of special-purpose-acquisition-companies (SPACs) have only propelled the lack of clarity and distinction amongst EV companies. Risk-tolerant investors seeking exposure in the Chinese EV markets can monitor opportunistic pullbacks for exposure into Xpeng.

Q3 FY 2020 Earnings Release

On Nov. 12, 2020, Xpeng released its fiscal third-quarter 2020 results for the quarter ending September 2020. The Company reported an earnings-per-share (EPS) loss of (-$0.32) excluding non-recurring items versus consensus analyst estimates for a loss of (-$0.18), a (-$0.14) miss. Revenues rose to $293.1 million versus consensus analyst estimates of $286.6 million. The Company expects Q4 total deliveries coming in around 10,000 vehicles representing a 210.8% year-over-year (YoY) growth. Total revenues are expected to be RMB 2,200 million, representing 243.7% YoY growth. The Company unveiled its P7 Wing at the 2020 Auto Guangzhou show on Nov. 20, 2020. The flagship limited edition model comes with scissor-style front doors and available in four-wheel and rear-wheel high performance super-long range versions priced at RMB409,000 and RMB366,900, post-subsidies respectively.

Financing Events

On Dec. 9, 2021, Xpeng priced its follow-on public offering of 48 million ADS at $45.00. Shares sold off to lows of $42.80 on the news before rallying and then continuing to sell-off to a low of $37.50 on Dec. 28, 2020. On Jan. 12, 2021, Xpeng announced the securing of a RMB12.8 billion line of credit with various banks including the Agricultural Bank of China, China CITIC Bank, the Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank to support the expansion of its manufacturing, sales and service capacity.

Monthly EV Deliveries Catalyst

All three Chinese EV producing companies provide monthly vehicle deliveries reports during the first week of the following month. The trend has been over 100% YoY delivery growth recently, which has caused shares to surge towards the end of the month and gap on the news. Profit-taking tends to form by the middle of the month and then cycle repeats into the next month. Additional catalysts would include news or events rolling out new products and the quarterly earnings report. However, the bar and the stakes rise with each report as any downticks in vehicle deliveries could rug pull share prices rapidly stifling and reversing momentum across all three names.  

December 2020 Deliveries

On Jan. 4, 2021, Xpeng announced a monthly delivery record of 5,700 smart EVs in December 2020 consisting of a record 3,691 P7 sports sedan and 2,009 G3 smart compact SUVs. December deliveries present a 326% YoY growth and 35% sequential quarterly growth. The Company delivered a total of 12,964 smart EVs in Q4, representing a 303% YoY and 51% sequential growth and surpassing its own Q4 estimates of 10,000 vehicle deliveries. Total full-year deliveries were 27,041 units, representing a 112% improvement over 2019.

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 XPEV Opportunistic Pullback Levels

Using the rifle charts on the weekly and daily time frame provides a near-term view of the landscape for XPEV stock. The data is still forming on the weekly rifle chart as the 5-period moving average (MA) is rising at $44.87 and the 15-period MA sits at the $39.50 Fibonacci (fib) level. The weekly stochastic is still materializing, but a cross up can trigger a pup breakout. The weekly market structure low (MSL) buy trigger formed above $47.95, however, the daily market structure high (MSH) sell triggers formed before $63.01 and $42.84. The daily rifle chart uptrend stalled as shares fell under the daily 5-period MA at $49.69 with the daily 15-period MA at $44.87. The daily stochastic formed stairstep mini pups that stalled at the 80-band. From here, another mini pup can form if shares bounce back up through the daily MSL trigger and stochastic crosses up through the 80-band. If the daily stochastic crosses down, then prudent investors can monitor for opportunistic pullback levels at the $44.87 fib, $43.24 MSL trigger, $39.50 fib, $36.03 fib and the $34.10 fib. Upside trajectories range from the $60.24 fib to $82.19 fib. Traders can also watch other Chinese EV makers NIO and LI to gauge the group sentiment.