Intuitive Machines: March 6 Is a Pivotal Day for Lunar Economy

Key Points

• Space company Intuitive Machines is looking to land its second spacecraft on the Moon on Mar. 6.
• The company made history in 2024 after its first landing. However, shares traded wildly as scientists and investors debated the success of the mission.
• The outcome of Intuitive's spacecraft landing is likely to have massive implications for shares. Success would mark a huge step toward building the lunar economy.

Intuitive Machines NASDAQ: LUNR has an upcoming event that could cause its shares to shoot to the moon or crash and burn. This small-cap space stock has experienced massive volatility in its share price; however, it has provided a huge return of 130% in the past 52 weeks as of Mar. 3.

The company is teaming up with NASA to build a lasting human presence on the Moon. It just launched its second lunar lander, which is currently en route to the celestial body. With a potential landing on the Moon’s surface on Mar. 6, Intuitive stock is set for a polarizing day. Below is an outline of the significance of this landing and its potential impact on the future of Intuitive Machines.

LUNR: Detailing the Market Reaction to Intuitive’s Historic Lunar Landing Past

Intuitive landed its first craft on the Moon in late February 2024. The Odysseus spacecraft's landing marked the first time a United States craft achieved this since 1972. After the evening landing on Feb. 22, shares of Intuitive surged 46% in pre-market trading on Friday, Feb. 23. They ultimately finished up 16% on the day. A Wall Street analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald boosted their price target on Intuitive shares from $4 to $13, a whopping 225% increase.

That same day, the industrial company provided more information about the landing. It was less successful than they had first thought. One of the spacecraft’s legs broke off due to hitting the Moon's surface at too high a velocity. Although the craft stood upright for a few minutes, it ultimately toppled due to the loss of this leg. Luckily, the firm was still able to get most of its customers the data they paid for Odysseus to collect.

Additionally, despite uncertainty on Wall Street, most in the scientific community considered this landing a huge success. Still, this mishap caused shares to tank in after-hours trading that Friday. They ended down nearly 35% the following Monday, showing the wild volatility that can result in shares of Intuitive based on the success of its upcoming landing attempt.

What’s Next: Athena Looks to Make Safe Passage

The company’s second lunar lander, Athena, launched from Florida on Feb. 26, and the company “expects a lunar landing opportunity on March 6." Regarding the mission, Intuitive Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Steve Altemus said, "While the most vital part of this mission lies ahead, we believe this is a signal that lunar services are rapidly advancing alongside civil and commercial intent to establish a foothold on the Moon to reach further into the Solar System.”

The upcoming Athena landing is a chance for Intuitive to show it leads the pack in Moon missions. Its previous landing was almost fully successful, but the firm likely needs this one to be an improvement to impress markets. The company’s CEO says that this mission is much more complicated than the Odysseus mission. This provides the opportunity for greater success but also creates a higher degree of difficulty.

The stakes are even higher considering that a competitor recently achieved what Intuitive hopes to. Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost Mission 1 successfully landed on the Moon on Mar. 2. Firefly, similar to Intuitive, is one of five vendors picked for lunar delivery contracts under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative, which aims to collect data from the Moon, which will help prepare for future missions where humans will return to the surface.

Intuitive has won millions in awards from the CLPS initiative. However, it must keep improving its technology to earn more rewards. If it doesn't, NASA may look to other firms to supply its needs.

Athena’s Significant Commercial Payload Provides Path Toward a Lunar Economy if Successful

It is important to understand that Intuitive isn’t just getting revenue from NASA. Just one of the many payloads on Athena is for the CLPS program; most of them are for commercial customers. This means Intuitive has the chance to expand more into the commercial market if it succeeds, as many more commercial customers see a return on their investment. This can clear a path toward being a key player in a future “lunar economy" it wants to create.

Intuitive looks to supply both communications and infrastructure for future settlements on the Moon, a potentially massive opportunity. However, proving that the company’s spaceships can safely deliver important payloads to the Moon’s surface is one of the first steps to achieving this incredibly ambitious goal.