Mobileye's High Short Interest Signals Squeeze Potential

Key Points

• Mobileye stock is set up for a short squeeze; the only thing missing is a catalyst, but one may be on the horizon.
• The company is well-positioned to take market share and deepen its penetration within the automobile industry.
• Growth is expected to resume in 2025 and accelerate at a hyper pace for the next four years. 

Mobileye NASDAQ: MBLY short interest remains high and has the stock set up for a squeeze. At 20%, the short interest rate is sufficiently high to drive a significant upside in the price action; all it will take is good news, and there is reason to believe it will come in 2025.

Automobile sales growth is sluggish, but advancements in technology are not. OEMs are embedding more driver assist and autonomous capability by the quarter, and Mobileye’s platform is well-positioned. Its camera-enabled EyeQ system is easily adaptable across vehicle types and offers numerous advantages to OEMs. 

Mobileye Analysts Warm to the Long-Term Opportunity

Mobileye’s bullish analyst trends include increasing coverage and price targets in the back half of 2024, which see this stock rising by double digits in 2025. The latest coverage includes an initiation by Oppenheimer at Outperform with a $28 price target. The target is more than 50% above the mid-January market action and a six-month or more significant high when reached. Oppenheimer believes Mobileye is key to OEMs unlocking incremental value through AV/AI functionality as technology advances. Eventually, full-AV will supersede it; until then, it is positioned to take market share and deepen penetration of product-per-vehicle. 

Mobileye’s business will likely contract in Q4 2024 but is set up to revert to growth in 2025. The forecast is for a 15% or greater top-line advance and broader margins. Revenue growth is expected to accelerate for the next four years, topping nearly 45% annually in 2028. Earnings growth will be more robust, sustaining a hyper-growth pace above 50% for the same duration and then falling to a more sustainable 20% to 30% range for the next few years after that. The valuation is a slight concern in 2025, as the stock trades about 60x its earnings forecast, but there is value for long-term holders. Trading at $16, it is roughly 5x its 2030 earnings outlook, a forecast that is likely too low. 

The institutional interest remains low at less than 15% of the stock, but the trends are positive. Analysts bought on balance every quarter since the IPO, with buying dollars outpacing selling by nearly $4 to $1. Buyers in Q4 included numerous smaller public and private money managers and large fund managers like Loomis Sayles and Co. and Charles Schwab.  Charles Schwab, notably, increased its position by $20 million or nearly 170%. 

Mobileye Chauffeur to Drive Results Long-Term

The long-term opportunity for Mobileye and its investors is fully autonomous driving, enabled by its Chauffeur platform. Chauffeur is a full-stack operating system and hardware expected to launch commercially in 2026. The system is designed for easy deployment; it is scalable and customizable within parameters, allowing for branded driving experiences. Among the critical features is geofencing, or the lack thereof. 

Geofencing is when devices such as autonomous vehicles are locked within a geographical boundary dictated by their digital range. Chauffeur is built with Mobileye’s proprietary REM or Road Experience Management platform. The REM is a crowd-sourced, continuously updated world map exclusively for AVs. It allows for the rapid deployment of AVs worldwide. 

The Technical Outlook: Mobileye Hammers Out a Bottom

The price action in Mobileye is volatile but shows a bottom is in play. The bottom was reached in 2024, and support is being tested again in early 2025. Support is likely strong at the current levels because of the increased volume. Volume has been rising steadily since the middle of 2024 and shows a strengthening market. The critical support level is near $14 and may be reached before February. A move below that level could take this market to a new low, which is unexpected. The more likely scenario is that sideways action within the range will continue until signs of traction are seen in the results.