Qualcomm’s Range Narrows Ahead of Earnings as Bulls Step In

Key Points

• Qualcomm is up nearly 15% from April’s low and forming higher highs into earnings.
• TD Cowen’s recent Buy rating and easing macro headwinds support the bull case.
• UBS sees mixed demand, but legal clarity and PC/AI potential are long-term positives.

Qualcomm Inc. NASDAQ: QCOM closed just under $140 on Tuesday night, continuing a steady rally off its multi-year low earlier this month. Since bottoming out at the start of April, the stock has gained nearly 15%, putting in a series of higher highs, one of the clearest bullish technical patterns around.

The trading range has also narrowed sharply, a sign that volatility is beginning to compress just ahead of the company’s next earnings report, due after the bell on April 30. In setups like this, narrowing ranges can often precede explosive moves, and with some early signs of risk appetite returning to the broader equity market, there’s a growing sense that smart money could already be taking positions.

Technical Momentum Is Building

There’s no denying the change in character from the tech giant’s price action. The stock spent much of March in a frustrating grind lower, culminating in a breakdown to its lowest level since late 2023. But since that flush-out move, the tone has shifted. Shares have rebounded sharply and are now making higher highs and higher lows, which is a classic technical signature of bullish control.

Add in a relative strength index that has climbed from deeply oversold territory back toward neutral and a MACD that has just had a bullish crossover, and the message from the chart is getting harder to ignore. 

Relief Rally in Semis Helping the Case

Tuesday’s broader rally in semiconductor stocks only adds fuel to the fire. Virtually every major name in the sector closed higher after comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at a private summit signaled that tensions with China over tariffs are likely to ease. Bessent reportedly told investors that the current situation is “unsustainable” and that de-escalation is expected.

That kind of commentary is important for Qualcomm, whose global handset and modem business is heavily exposed to macro shifts. Given how oversold the stock has become, Qualcomm could be a key beneficiary if sentiment continues to improve.

UBS Sees Mixed Demand But Long-Term Positives

Ahead of next week’s earnings, UBS weighed in with a preview note that called for “in-line” results but flagged some challenges around guidance. Specifically, the firm sees potential for a softer-than-usual Q2 outlook due to global macro and tariff headwinds impacting smartphone demand.

UBS noted that iPhone sell-through has been weaker than expected and that some Apple Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL modem units are rolling off due to the iPhone SE’s updated design. However, given its small share of overall volumes, this isn’t expected to impact revenue materially.

Of greater concern, according to UBS, is that Android sell-through has been mixed, which is more relevant given that Qualcomm generates roughly 75% of its handset revenue from Android devices. That said, there have been some positive headlines recently as well. 

One clear bright spot is the legal clarity Qualcomm recently gained with its court win over Arm Holdings Plc NASDAQ: ARM. That legal victory removes a key overhang and could open up expansion potential across multiple growth verticals, most notably in PCs, automotive, and AI-enabled devices.

With management already talking up diversification efforts in these areas, this legal win could unlock fresh momentum down the line.

TD Cowen’s Bullish View Still Stands

Earlier this month, TD Cowen became the first firm in months to issue a fresh Buy rating on Qualcomm even as its shares remained under pressure.

Analyst Joshua Buchalter cited the company’s low-power and high-connectivity product portfolio as a strong fit for high-growth areas like IoT and Automotive. TD Cowen walked away from their investor meetings confident in Qualcomm’s ability to expand beyond smartphones and address broader investor concerns around its Technology Licensing business.

It’s a cautiously optimistic view, but one that could prove well-timed if the stock breaks out following next week’s report.

After spending most of the year under pressure, Qualcomm has quietly started to repair its chart and stabilize its narrative. The recent bounce off multi-year lows, the tightening trading range, and the renewed analyst support from TD Cowen all point to the potential for a strong move ahead.