REV Group Leads Specialty Vehicle Manufacturers Higher

Key Points

• REV Group is executing well in a time of troubled supply chains and inflation. 
• The guidance for 2023 is better than expected and opens the door for outperformance as well. 
• The stock is ready to reverse and may gain upwards of 50% in the next few quarters. 

REV Group NYSE: REVG has been struggling with supply chain issues and economic woe just like everybody else but now the stock is ready to make a major reversal. The company’s Q4 results and guidance for the year were better than expected and supported by the company’s diverse operating model.

Not only does it manufacture specialty vehicles like cargo trucks, school and transit busses, fire engines, and RVs but it makes both ICE and BEV vehicles giving it ultimate diversification within the market. While the Q4 results bode well for commercial vehicle manufacturers like Nikola NASDAQ: NKLA, Workhorse Group (NASDAQ: WKHS), Plug Power NASDAQ: PLUG, and the budding Mullen Automotive NASDAQ: MULN the news isn’t so great for others. 

Diversification And Management Propel REV Group Higher 

REV Group’s Q4 and fiscal 2022 results are a testament to the company’s operating model and management. Not only did it benefit from diversification but also from improved supply chain capability including a growing level of redundancy in regard to the suppliers. 

“Throughout fiscal 2022 we managed macro headwinds that impacted our ability to achieve consistent production flow and staffing levels within our manufacturing facilities,” REV Group Inc. President and CEO Rod Rushing said. “In the face of these challenges, we continued to deploy operational initiatives that we believe will deliver improved operational performance and shareholder value. We have made progress against supply chain headwinds with an expectation to benefit from multi-sourcing initiatives within the first half of fiscal 2023.”

The company reported $623.6 million in net revenue a gain of 5.7% over last year. The revenue beat the consensus estimate by nearly $24 million or 380 basis points and was driven by strength in the Commercial and the Recreational lines of business. The Commercial Line includes a port-specific cargo truck, transit busses, and street cleaners while the Recreational segment includes 7 brands that include a fiberglass specialist with business across sectors and industries. The only bad news is that Fire & Emergency sales offset the strength. 

The company was also able to show some strength on the bottom line as well. The company’s adjusted EBITDA expanded by 7.7% compared to a smaller gain on the top line and drove better-than-expected earnings. The adjusted $0.28 in EPS is $0.02 better than expected and comes with favorable guidance for the coming year as well.

The company is expecting to see revenue in a range of $2.3 to $2.5 billion which is flat to up 11.5% YOY and margins should be strong as well. Based on the backlog of $4.2 billion the only thing holding the company back is the supply chain and labor. If it can continue to build momentum in that regard top and bottom-line earnings could easily beat guidance. 

The Technical Outlook: REV Group Is Ready To Shift Into High Gear 

REV Group retreated from a key resistance level in recent price action but is testing that resistance once again in the wake of the F23 guidance. If the stock can get above the $14.20 level it could easily continue up to the $18 level before hitting major resistance. Longer term, if momentum builds in the underlying business, the stock could move back up to the post-pandemic highs near $20. If not, REVG may be range bound at the current levels until there is more proof for investors.