Shifting Momentum in Utilities, Time to Buy?

Key Points

• The XLU has lagged the overall market, gaining nearly 1% year-to-date, but shows signs of shifting momentum as it consolidates above previous resistance.
• The technical setup suggests a possible momentum shift, so investors should track key resistance levels and top holdings for potential opportunities.
• Top holdings like NEE, SO, and DUK play a pivotal role in XLU's performance. Each exhibits unique technical and fundamental patterns, offering investors valuable insights into the sector's potential trajectory.

In the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) world, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSE: XLU remains a significant player, although it has seen a modest performance this year, with gains of nearly 1% year-to-date. Despite this, the XLU exhibits intriguing technical signals, suggesting a potential breakout and momentum shift that investors should closely monitor.

Understanding the XLU

The XLU aims to track the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index's Utilities Select Sector, which comprises companies from electric utilities, multi-utilities, independent power producers, and gas utilities. The fund seeks to mirror the index's investment performance by employing a passive investment approach.

The ETF primarily focuses on U.S. exposure, with 99.8% of its assets allocated domestically. Within its subindustry exposure, Electric Utilities account for 59.1%, while Multi-Utilities comprise 27%. Analysts' ratings for holdings within XLU indicate an aggregate hold rating based on 275 analyst ratings covering 30 companies, representing 99.8% of the portfolio. The aggregate price target for these holdings is $69.39, with a range spanning from $58.33 to $81.91 across the same 30 companies, comprising 99.8% of the portfolio.

Technical Analysis and Potential Breakout

From a technical analysis perspective, the XLU has shown prolonged consolidation within a tight range, signaling the potential for a significant breakout and momentum shift. Currently hovering near its downtrend resistance and converging SMAs, particularly the 200-day SMA, the ETF appears poised for a notable move higher.

A breakout and sustained hold above the $65 mark, accompanied by robust volume and time spent above resistance, could mark a pivotal moment for the XLU on a higher timeframe. Such a move would likely attract momentum traders and investors, potentially driving the ETF toward its anticipated resistance levels of around $68 and $70.

Assessing Top Holdings

While technical analysis provides valuable insights, it's essential to consider the ETF's top-weighted holdings, which significantly influence its overall performance. Notably, the three primary holdings of the XLU include NextEra Energy NYSE: NEE with a 15.06% weighting, Southern Company NYSE: SO at 8.03%, and Duke Energy NYSE: DUK at 7.33%.

Understanding the fundamentals and technicals of these top-weighted holdings is critical for assessing the XLU's performance. Factors such as dividend yield, financial metrics, analyst ratings, and technical setups of these companies can substantially impact the ETF's trajectory.

NEE, the ETF’s top holding, recently broke its downtrend and was last trading near its 200-day SMA. The stock is a top-rated dividend stock with a 3.33% dividend yield. NEE has a moderate buy rating and consensus price target, predicting an almost 18% upside. The company is trading at a modest valuation of 17.11 P/E and has a 6.4% earnings growth projection for the full year ahead.

The Southern Company, the ETF’s second-largest holding, recently reclaimed its 200-day SMA and spent time consolidating above it. Significant resistance for SO now stands near $71 and $73. If the stock can break above these prices, it will likely significantly influence the ETF and sector. SO has a dividend yield of 4.01% and projected earnings growth of 7.5%.

Duke Energy rounds out the top three holdings. Like SO and the overall sector, shares of DUK recently reclaimed their 200-day and are nearing significant resistance and a potential inflection area near $96. DUK has a dividend yield of 4.33%, projected earnings growth of 6.02%, and a moderate buy rating with a consensus price target forecasting an almost 6% upside.

While the XLU has seen relatively subdued performance year-to-date, its technical setup suggests the potential for a significant breakout and momentum shift in the near future. Monitoring key levels and top holdings can provide valuable insights for investors seeking opportunities in this sector.