Tesla Stock Eyes Breakout With Earnings on Deck

Key Points

• Tesla is forming a double bottom as momentum builds into next week’s earnings.
• Mizuho, Wedbush, and Benchmark have reaffirmed bullish ratings with nearly 50% upside.
• Revised estimates reflect caution, but Tesla remains a leader in EV and autonomy.

Shares of Tesla Inc. NASDAQ: TSLA closed around $254 on Tuesday, continuing a quiet but potentially meaningful turnaround.

After plunging nearly 50% from its December all-time high, the stock has shown surprising resilience in recent weeks. The bears have now failed twice to push it below $220, and that inability to break new lows is starting to look like the foundation of a technical double bottom.

The rally is still early, but it’s gaining traction. The stock’s relative strength index (RSI) is climbing steadily out of oversold territory, and with earnings set for next week, anticipation is building for a possible upside surprise.

Wall Street is taking notice, too, with a trio of high-profile analysts reaffirming their bullish stance over the past several days.

Analysts Reiterate Their Support

In the last week alone, Mizuho Securities, Wedbush, and Benchmark have all reiterated their Buy or Outperform ratings on Tesla shares, with price targets ranging from $315 to $375.

At the upper end, that’s an implied upside of almost 50% from current levels, and while that range has narrowed compared to previous targets, it still paints a picture of a stock with room to run.

Even though each of the three teams cut their price targets, they all still consider the stock a solid Buy, reflecting confidence in Tesla’s long-term market position despite ongoing uncertainty.

What’s Behind Mizuho’s Update?

Mizuho’s update, in particular, gave investors insight into how Wall Street is sizing up Tesla right now. The firm’s revised financial model now expects Tesla’s revenue for Q1 2025 to come in at $20.53 billion and EPS at $0.51, both down from prior projections.

For the full year, Mizuho cut its revenue forecast from $108.03 billion to $101.03 billion and its EPS forecast from $2.89 to $2.60.

The rationale behind the revisions centers on conservative expectations for delivery volumes and a more competitive global EV landscape.

Mizuho now sees Tesla delivering two million units in 2026, down from 2.3 million previously and expects slower growth in both Europe and China as local competitors ramp production.

Still, these numbers are not far off from consensus estimates, and Mizuho made it clear that Tesla remains the clear leader in the U.S. EV space.

The firm continues to believe in the company’s long-term potential, especially in autonomy, lower-cost models, and software-enabled margin expansion. Their revised price target may reflect realism, but they don’t negate the overall bull case.

The Technical Picture Looks Stronger

While estimates may have been trimmed, the chart speaks a more optimistic language.

Tesla’s price action over the past few weeks has been constructive, with buyers consistently stepping in near $220 and creating what looks like a classic double-bottom pattern.

If this pattern holds, and that’s still an “if” until earnings confirm it, the stock could be setting up for a powerful move higher.

RSI has climbed meaningfully from its lows earlier this month, and the MACD flipped bullish two weeks ago, suggesting momentum may now be with the bulls. 

Earnings Set the Stage for Tesla’s Next Big Move

Next week’s earnings report is the key catalyst on the horizon. Expectations have been lowered, both by Mizuho and others, but that could work in Tesla’s favor.

When the bar is low, even modest beats can trigger major upside moves—especially for stocks that have been as heavily punished as Tesla has over the past quarter.

The setup here is familiar: heavy drawdown, stabilizing price action, analyst support, and a key event around the corner. If Tesla can deliver, the stock could catch fire. If it misses, however, the double bottom may turn into a trap.

Tesla's Volatility May Be the Opportunity

Tesla remains one of the most volatile and divisive stocks in the market, but that volatility also creates opportunity. After falling nearly 50% from its highs, the stock has spent the past few weeks quietly stabilizing, and the latest round of analyst support has added fuel to a developing rally.

With earnings just days away, risk-tolerant investors could be looking at one of the most compelling setups Tesla has seen all year.