Toll Brothers: Analysts are going crazy for this homebuilder

Key Points

• Shares of Toll Brothers have been printing all time highs for weeks. 
• Last week’s earnings smashed analyst expectations, which bodes well for 2024. 
• The more bullish price targets are calling for a further 30% upside. 

Homebuilders aren’t typically the type of company that immediately makes you think of big rallies and all-time highs, but perhaps that’s because there are few like Toll Brothers NYSE: TOL. While the S&P 500 index has managed to tack on a respectable 20% this year, shares of Pennsylvania headquartered Toll have rallied more than 80%. 

Friday’s session saw them pop up to fresh all-time highs once again, something they’ve been doing since the middle of last month. It’s been a powerful couple of weeks for the stock, with Q3’s 20% selloff now having been completely undone and then some. 

Bullish results

The latest move comes after the company reported its Q4 earnings last week, which smashed analyst expectations on both headline numbers. Gross margins were up, expenses were down, and management was bullish about the momentum continuing into 2024. CEO Douglas Yearley spoke to this point specifically with the report that “over the long-term, the outlook for the new home market remains bright, supported by favorable demographics, the supply-demand imbalance that has resulted from over a decade of underproduction, and the aging of the country’s existing housing stock.” 

The bright outlook and higher-than-expected forward guidance certainly bode well for the company’s shares, and we should see them being continually bought up all the way into January. While a relative strength index reading of 77 does indicate that Toll Brothers’ stock is considered extremely overbought, this is to be somewhat expected off the back of such a strong report. 

Already we’ve seen a run of analyst upgrades and comments, almost all of them bullish. The team at Raymond James reiterated their Strong Buy rating on the stock last week and boosted their price target from $110 to $120. This bullish stance was echoed in one form or another by the teams at UBS and Royal Bank of Canada as well. From where shares closed on Friday, the street-high price target points to a further upside of at least 30%.

Triple-digit prices

Were shares to hit this in the coming weeks, they’d be trading above $100 for the first time, even deeper into blue sky territory, and up a full 200% from last year’s low. The continuous strength in Toll Brothers shares isn’t perhaps all that surprising, considering that at the end of last month, Oppenheimer was singing their praises and calling them one of the best buys in the consumer discretionary space. 

Looking ahead into 2024, the company is looking to deliver more than 10,000 homes and continuously improve margins, which should be music to investors’ ears. Despite some concerns about a wider slowdown in the industry thanks to higher rates, Toll Brothers has shown itself to be remarkably resilient. With it looking increasingly like inflation has been tamed and the Fed has threaded the needle, rates are starting to cool, and 2024 could see some actual cuts. In the event of this, consider the likes of Toll Brothers to do exceptionally well, as lower borrowing rates mean more homes. 

Getting involved

For those of us on the sidelines considering a position, the cherry on top is that the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is only 7.5. Compare this, for example, to Lennar Corp’s NYSE: LEN P/E ratio of 10, and you get a sense of just how cheap Toll Brothers’ stock remains despite the ongoing rally. We can all kick ourselves for not backing up the truck when Toll’s P/E ratio was less than 4 last year, but it’s still half of what it was in 2021. 

So, even with the stock’s relative strength index giving some pause for thought, we’re inclined to agree with the analysts and call this one a screaming buy. Any dip or profit-taking in the coming sessions should be viewed as a buying opportunity, as Toll Brothers has shown itself capable of making money in pretty much any market environment.