Why eBay Stock Is the Steady Performer You Can't Ignore

Key Points

• eBay is still the world’s largest consumer-to-consumer (C2C) online auction marketplace.
• eBay is nearly 30 years old, with a fortress balance sheet and profitable business that’s growing in the low single digits and paying a 1.7% annual dividend yield.
• eBay is integrating AI to make shopping for buyers and listing items for sellers more efficient with fewer friction points and bottlenecks.

eBay Inc. NASDAQ: EBAY is the world’s largest online auction site connecting buyers and sellers worldwide. It was one of the first consumer-to-consumer (C2C) online auction sites on the internet, and it's nearing its 30^th birthday. eBay is no longer the hypergrowth e-commerce stock it once was; it is a stable and steady blue-chip internet stock that remains profitable with a solid balance sheet and liquidity. Its shares are coming off a 52-week high.

eBay operates in the computer and technology sector and competes with online auction and eCommerce marketplaces, including Etsy Inc. NASDAQ: ETSY, Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN, Mercari Inc. OTCMKTS: MCARY and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. NYSE: BABA.

Capitalizing on the Collectibles Market

eBay is one of the largest sites for collectibles auctions and sales. It charges a 13% fee to sellers for sold items. Hobbyists and collectors of comic books, Funko Inc. NASDAQ: FNKO, Funko Pops, trading cards, sneakers, handbags, watches, and antiques from all over the world gather to bid on collectible items. Collectibles was the second largest contributor to gross merchandise volume (GMV) in its second-quarter of 2024 earnings report.

Partnering With PSA: Grading and Authentication

eBay has made several deals with Collectors, the parent company of Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA). PSA is a widely used third-party grading and authentication service that focuses on authenticating, grading, and encapsulating trading cards, autographs, toys, and Funko Pops. Graded cards sell for much more money than raw cards. eBay transferred trading card assets to the PSA vault for holding. PSA customers can easily sell their graded and encapsulated cards from the PSA vault on eBay at any time without having to wait for their cards to be shipped back to them to ship out to the buyers.

eBay also completed the acquisition of Goldin Auctions, a premium auction house for collectibles, from Collectors. Goldin has gained mainstream popularity thanks to its Netflix Inc. NASDAQ: NFLX series “King of Collectibles,” which is streaming for a second season.

Refurbished Inventory and Authentication Guarantee Growth

eBay expanded its refurbished service to include golf clubs. It’s launched stores for brands and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like Dyson to sell their refurbished inventory. Seagate Technologies Holdings plc NASDAQ: STX is responsible for direct sales of its factory-recertified hard drives. It has also reached a milestone in its Authentication Guarantee Program. It has authenticated its 10th million items since its inception, including a pair of Air Jordan 1 Low Lucky Green sneakers in its Las Vegas facility.

eBay has also launched a "click-to-resell" button with Certilogo, an AI-powered pre-owned clothing authentication provider. eBay is the largest pre-owned clothing and merchandise marketplace, benefiting from the off-brand consumer shopping tailwinds.

Investments in AI and ML Are Paying Off

eBay's investments in AI are paying off as it deployed its first supercomputer. It gives them the capacity to build and refine larger LLMs on trillions of tokens. Its supercomputer is on par with the top 50 supercomputers in the world in terms of computing speed and petaflops. Its generative AI offerings are helping sellers better list their items, creating more detailed item descriptions. eBay launched a generative AI-powered discovery feature called Shop the Look for fashion buyers. This feature lets eBay curate personalized outfits of new and pre-owned apparel and luxury items that match a user's style and preferences.

Magical Listings Are a Game Changer

One of the major friction points and bottlenecks for sellers is the time-consuming task of listing items for sale on eBay. The seller has to complete a number of tasks that include creating a compelling description along with the title, item details, category selections, pricing and shipping options. eBay's AI-powered Magical Listing Tool automates the listing process as soon as the seller uploads a picture of the item to be sold. The tool will automatically create the description and fill in the details, which the seller overlooks and confirms before going live. Currently, Magical Listings is still in beta.

eBay CEO Jamie Iannone commented, "After fully rolling out generative AI descriptions, we are continuing to test and iterate on the next phase of our magical listing experience, which leverages user-uploaded product images to help sellers fill in the category, title, and other item aspects for a listing. A subset of sellers are testing this experience in beta, and we are leveraging their feedback and expertise to train our models and expand coverage to a broader range of categories.

eBay’s Steady Eddie Single-Digit Growth Quarter

eBay reported Q2 2024 EPS of $1.18, which beat consensus analyst expectations by 5 cents. Revenues rose 1.3% YoY to $2.57 billion versus $2.53 billion consensus estimates. GAAP net income was $226 million, while non-GAAP net income was $602 million. eBay generated $367 million of operating cash flow and $278 million of free cash flow.

GMV was up 1% to $18.4 billion. Active buyers were flat YoY at 132 million. eBay Motors Parts and Accessories (P&A) segment had the highest GMV in the quarter, followed by Collectibles. Non-GAAP operating margins came in at 27.9%, higher than the 27.6% upper end of guidance. Advertising revenue grew 12% YoY as total ad revenue rose to 2.2% of GMV.

The company bought back $1 billion of stock in the quarter, or 19 million shares. There is still $1.9 billion remaining in its buyback program. After paying out $135 million in cash dividends, eBay closed the quarter with $6.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

eBay Issues Mixed Guidance

The company expects third-quarter 2024 EPS of $1.15 to $1.20, beating $1.13 consensus estimates. Revenues are expected between $2.50 billion and $2.56 billion, versus $2.54 billion consensus estimates.

EBAY Stock Forms a Potential Bull Flag Set-Up

A bull flag forms when the stock surges through its upper descending trendline resistance, which moves parallel to its descending lower trendline support after peaking its flag pole run up at a swing high.

EBAY formed its swing high at $64.96, shy of the highest analyst price target of $65.00. The flagpole commenced with parallel descending (falling) upper and lower trendlines. A market structure high (MSH) sell trigger also forms under $63.02. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is slipping to the 65-band. Fibonacci (Fib) pullback support levels are at $60.82, $56.98, $56.63, and $55.29.

eBay’s average consensus price target is $56.90, and its highest analyst price target is $65.00.  

EBAY stock recently peaked off its highest analyst price target at $65.00. Its consensus price target is 9% lower at $56.90. However, if a bull flag triggers, it may also be setting up its next leg higher. Bullish investors can enter on pullbacks using cash-secured puts at the fib pullback support levels to buy the dip.  

By implementing a bullish call debit spread, bullish options investors can limit the downside and profit from modest upside gains for less capital than owning the stock.