Why Lennar Stock Could Be the Best Play in the Housing Market

Key Points

• Lennar had a solid Q3 and guided for sequential improvement, leading analysts to raise targets.
• Cash flow is sound and drives a robust capital return program that reduces the share count and pays dividends.
• The FOMC interest rate cuts are expected to broaden demand and strengthen the homebuilding market. 

Lennar NYSE: LEN has headwinds in 2024, including margin pressure, but that is the worst news. While the housing market at large is tepid, conditions favor home builders, driving business, cash flow, and capital returns. Looking forward, there is a catalyst for 2025 in FOMC rate cuts.

High rates and affordability impact consumer demand today, but the headwind is expected to become a tailwind as the rate-cut process progresses. To paraphrase comments from Lennar CEO Stuart Miller, the market is only expected to strengthen over time as affordability improves. 

Lennar Outperforms in Q3; Guidance Underwhelms

Lennar had a solid quarter in Q3, with deliveries and backlog growing compared to the prior year. The company reported 49.4 billion in net revenue for a gain of 7.7% over last year, outpacing expectations by 260 basis points. The gain was driven by a 16% increase in deliveries offset by a “slightly” lower average selling price impacted by mix and incentives. Mix and incentives also impacted the margin, which contracted compared to last year but less than the consensus forecast reported by MarketBeat.

The new home gross margin contracted by 190 basis points, offset by improved SG&A. The net margin on home sales contracted by 180 basis points, leaving net earnings up 5% and ahead of the consensus. The GAAP EPS of $4.26 is up 10%, including mark-to-market impact and other one-offs, but the adjusted is still strong at $3.90, flat YoY, and $0.33, or nearly 1000 basis points above the average forecast. The takeaway is that cash flow remains robust despite normalization following two years of intense activity, and the guidance remains favorable despite falling short of the consensus forecast. 

The company guidance is underwhelming relative to the consensus estimates but expects a sequential improvement in delivery and flat margins compared to Q3. While tepid relative to expectations, the guidance implies cash flow sufficient to sustain fortress-quality operations and value-enhancing capital returns. Capital return in Q3 included $519 million in share repurchases, not including the dividend, and helped to reduce the average count by 4.5% YoY. 

Lennar’s Building Value for Shareholders

Lennar’s positive cash-flow quarter allowed it to build shareholder value while paying dividends, repurchasing shares, and improving balance sheet health. The balance sheet highlights include a net cash position, no debt on the revolving facility, and improved equity despite the more than doubling treasury shares. Equity is up 3.15% and is expected to continue growing over time. 

Assuming that the FOMC tailwind begins to impact the market soon, capital returns could easily accelerate in 2025. The dividend payment is less than 5% of earnings, and the total capital return for the quarter is less than 50%, leaving ample room for increases without earnings growth. The consensus for 2025 is for greater than 15% growth and is likely a cautious estimate given the outlook for interest rates. 

Analysts Sentiment Drives Lennar Higher

The consensus price sentiment and price target for Lennar are a little misleading. The rating is pegged at Hold, down from a Moderate Buy, and the price target lags the price action. However, the rating slipped due to an influx of new reports initiated at Hold, with price targets leading the consensus higher. The consensus is up 35% compared to last year and 7.5% since the Q3 release, leading the market to the high-end range and a new all-time high. With 75% of the fresh revisions ranging from $190 to $235, the new high will likely be reached; the question is when.

The technical action is suggestive, with the market trending higher and winding up for its next move. The caution is that recent action looks like a rising wedge and may signal a correction is near. Up 200% in the last two years and trading at record levels, the market is ripe for a correction. In that scenario, targets for support and rebounding are $180, $170, and $165. A move below $165 could lead to $140 and a deep-value opportunity.