Why McDonald's Is About to Become a $300 Stock Again

Key Points

• McDonald's shares have pulled back 11% from October's all-time high.
• However, analysts are exceedingly bullish, with recent price targets pointing to a 20% upside.
• Strong technical indicators suggest a near-term rally is very much on the cards. 

Shares of McDonald's Corp NYSE: MCD shares have had a bit of a mixed ride recently, capping off the final quarter of 2024 with all-time highs in October that were followed by a sharp drop into the new year. Currently trading 11% off those highs, the Chicago-based fast-food giant, boasting a market cap north of $200 billion, is still offering a lot for investors to be excited about. 

As we head into the first couple of weeks of the year, bullish analyst updates are setting the stage for what could be a strong rebound in 2025. McDonald's is a stock that's worth watching closely - let's jump in and take a closer look.

McDonald’s Fundamental Performance: A Mixed Bag in 2024

To start with, McDonald's fundamental performance in 2024 was a mixed bag but not without its highlights. While the first half of the year saw the company miss analyst expectations for earnings, October's report delivered a different story. The company smashed expectations, posting a record revenue print while they were at it, which helped offset some softness in comparable sales.

CEO Chris Kempczinski has been vocal about the company's long-term strategic plan for global growth, and 2024's final report suggests they're on the right track. Investors should look for the stock to continue building on this foundation as all eyes turn to February's earnings report. If management can demonstrate some consistent execution, there's every reason to believe the stock will find itself back in rally mode.

Bullish Analyst Updates: Significant Upside for McDonald’s Stock

Backing up the bullish case are some recent bullish updates from the analysts that suggest significant upside potential. At the end of last week, the team over at Citi upgraded their rating on McDonald's stock from Neutral to Buy, a move that echoed Loop Capital's reiteration of their Buy rating earlier in the month. Loop's $342 price target, in particular, is catching attention, as it points to a targeted upside of some 20% from where shares closed on Friday. 

For those of us on the sidelines, it's worth noting how December saw McDonald's named on Wells Fargo's list of top restaurant picks for 2025. These latest updates are continuing the momentum that began last year, underscoring the stock's potential to reclaim its October high of $318 and push into blue-sky territory. 

Broad Market and Industry Risks Weighing on McDonald’s Stock

That said, it's not all smooth sailing. Recent weeks have highlighted some bearish risks, with a marked drop in demand for McDonald's shares. Part of this pullback can be attributed to a broader cooling in investor sentiment towards equities in general and the restaurant industry in particular. In a separate note to clients last week, the team over at Citigroup did warn of potential headwinds in 2025, including a slowing labor market and a potential drop in industry sales.

These concerns aren't without merit, but it's hard to overlook the number of analysts, including Citi, who continue to single out McDonald's as a standout opportunity against its peers. On the same day Citi issued its cautionary note on the industry, Bernstein named McDonald's as one of their favorite restaurant names, reinforcing the rally potential in McDonald's shares. 

Getting Involved: Why McDonald’s Stock Looks Attractive Today

So, what does that say about where the stock is trading today? On the technical front, McDonald's setup is offering another reason for investors to be optimistic. The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently sitting at 33, a level that signals oversold conditions and suggests the stock is approaching extremely oversold territory.

For those unfamiliar, the RSI is a momentum indicator used to evaluate whether a stock is overbought or oversold. A reading below 30 typically indicates a stock is oversold, while anything above 70 signals overbought conditions. With McDonald's teetering near the former threshold, it's fair to expect the bears to shortly be running out of steam, which would set the scene for a strong rebound. 

For those happy to lean into the analysts' bullish outlook, this current pullback presents a fantastic entry opportunity. With strong fundamentals and a promising technical setup as well, there are plenty of reasons to think McDonald's will soon be back above $300, and investors should be excited.