2 Stocks Riding the Dominance of America’s Natural Gas Exports

Key Points

• The United States is the world’s largest producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and natural gas.
• Cheniere Energy is the largest exporter of LNG in the United States.
• Antero Resources is a pure play on natural gas. It is an independent natural gas exploration, development and production drilling company, primarily in the Appalachian Basin.

The United States is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), having surpassed Australia and Qatar in 2023. The United States exports an estimated 12.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day or 92 million metric tons annually. It's also arguably the largest natural gas exporter, surpassing Russia and Norway since 2024. Ukraine’s cancellation of its Russian gas export transit deal, where Russia's pipelines run through Ukraine to European customers, further cuts Russia's exports. Natural gas is growing as a fuel source for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) that don't even need to be converted to hydrogen first. Investors looking to capitalize on the dominance of America’s natural gas exports should take a closer look at these two stocks in the oils/energy sector.

Cheniere Energy: The Largest LNG Exporter in the United States

When it comes to LNG exports, Cheniere Energy Inc. NYSE: LNG is one of the first companies to come to mind, especially when looking at the stock symbol. Cheniere was a pioneer in LNG and an early believer in forming in 1996. As the largest LNG producer in the country, Cheniere operates two LNG facilities, the Sabine Pass LNG located in Louisiana and the new Corpus Christi LNG located in Texas. The Sabine Pass has 30 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) operating capacity. Corpus Cristi has 15 MTPA, with 10 MTPA in construction through seven midscale trains. The total current capacity is 45 MPTA with 10 MTPA under construction. Cheniere’s view is that the market will need 230 MTPA of supply over the next 10 years.

Closing Out a Trough Year for a Rebound

Cheniere posted Q4 2024 EPS of $.33, beating consensus estimates by $1.62. Revenue fell 8% YoY to $.44 billion, matching consensus estimates. The company closed the year with $2.2 billion in liquidity, with cash and cash equivalents of nearly $270 million. Restricted cash and cash equivalents of $109 million and $1 billion of available commitments under the Sabine Pass Liquefaction LLC (SPL) revolving credit facility.

For the full year 2025, Cheniere Energy expects adjusted EBITDA of $6.5 to $7 billion. Distributable cash flow is expected to be between $4.1 billion and $4.6 billion. 2024 was considered a trough year.

Cheniere’s Expansion Projects Developments

The company is developing an expansion project with an expected total production capacity of up to 20 MTPA of LNG called the SPL Expansion Project, located adjacent to the SPL Project. Cheniere submitted applications to the Federal Energy Regulation Commission for authorization to construct and operate the project and an application to the Department of Energy for authorization to export LNG to free trade agreement (FTA) and non-FTA countries.

CFO Zach Davis mentioned issuing an investment grade bond as part of their strategic funding, “Looking ahead, you can expect more of this while in the near term, we will continue to focus our debt paydown within the CQP complex in preparation for financing the SPL expansion project. The rating agencies continue to recognize our progress on balance sheet management through our corporate structure in 2024.”

Antero Resources: Natural Gas Exploration in Appalachia   

Natural gas demand in the United States has continued to rise steadily since 2020, with January 2025 as the highest on record at 50.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) for residential and commercial heating and cooking (ResComm) and 37.7 Bcf/d for power burn, electricity generation. The extreme freezing temperatures in January 2025 have reduced natural gas storage as prices start to rise in December 2024. Antero Resources Co. NYSE: AR, an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company, is a key benefactor of these record-freezing winter temperatures.

Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) Production

Antero primarily develops and produces natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs), like butane, propane, and ethane, from the Utica and Marcellus Shale formations in the Appalachian Basin. A large portion of their natural gas production is transported to the Gulf Coast LNG Corridor when it is exported as LNG and sold to premium markets.

Antero also has integrated midstream capabilities through Antero Midstream, which provides gathering, processing, and transportation, enabling cost-effective and reliable market access without having to depend on third-party services. The company utilizes hedging strategies to manage volatile commodity pricing and enable a more stable outlook around future inflows.

A Solid Fourth Quarter Into a Record-Freezing Winter

Antero reported Q4 EPS of 58 cents, crushing consensus estimates by 29 cents, as revenues fell 2.13% YoY to $1.17 billion, matching consensus estimates. Natural gas production averaged 2.1 Bcf/d, down 7% YoY. NGL production averaged 217 million thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), up 14% YoY. The company realized a pre-hedged natural gas equivalent price of $3.64 thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe) on 85 cents per Mcfe premium to NYMEX. Net income was $150 million, while non-GAAP net income was $181 million in the quarter, and free cash flow (FCF) was $159 million.

For 2025, Antero raised its previous maintenance production target by 50 million cubic feet equivalent per day (MMcfe/d) to 3.35 to 3.45 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d), attributable to the growth in liquids production. The company expects to realize natural gas prices to average a premium of 10 to 20 cents per Mcf to NYMEX and C3+ NGL price to average a premium of $1.50 to $2.50 per barrel to Mont Belvieu. C3+ refers to natural gas liquids consisting of propane (C3) and other heavier hydrocarbons, including butanes and other heavier liquids.

CFO Michael Kennedy commented, “Looking ahead to 2025, our firm transportation portfolio delivers 75% of our natural gas to the LNG corridor along the Gulf Coast and is expected to result in higher premium price realizations to NYMEX following the recent start-up of two large LNG export terminals in the Gulf.”