5 Winning Plays Outperforming the S&P This Year

Key Points

• The stocks on this list not only outperform the S&P 500 in 2025, but their stock prices are moving higher.
• Growth, tariff insulation, and analysts' sentiment trends support the price action. 
• Dividends, share buybacks, balance sheet health, and capital return sustainability are central to their stock price increases. 

While macroeconomic headwinds, tariffs, inflation, interest rates, and fears of a recession impact the broad market S&P 500, not all stocks are in the same position.

This is a look at five stocks and one REIT that are not only outperforming the average S&P 500 NYSEARCA: SPY stock in 2025 but are also growing and providing value improvements that are expected to continue as the year progresses. 

UnitedHealth Group: No Tariff Exposure Here, Just Bullish Trends

UnitedHealth Group NYSE: UNH is among the S&P 500 companies least exposed to tariffs. It does not manufacture, import, or export anything, making its money primarily from services and domestic operations. Domestic operations are good and supported by numerous tailwinds, including an aging population, a growing population, expanding medical services, and adopting those expansions. The highlights from F2024 include steady revenue growth in the high-single-digit range, margin strength, and improving guidance supported by employment and labor market trends. 

Attractions for investors include capital returns. The capital return consists of a reliable dividend and share repurchases. The dividend is less than 30% of earnings, so it is safe and growable; repurchases reduced the share count by about 1% in 2024. Catalysts for this market in 2025 include the Medicare rate decision for 2026, which came in above forecasts and was favorable to insurers. 

Duke Energy Corporation: Growth Goes Nuclear

It is unsurprising to see utility stocks like Duke Energy NYSE: DUK rise as the broad market moves lower. Their visible revenue streams, capital returns, and, now, tariff immunity, make them a good pick for buy-and-hold investors, but there is more to the Duke story.

Not only is its business supported by a favorable rate pricing environment, but it is also leaning into nuclear energy, getting approval to operate its central facility for an additional 20 years while it works to improve its nuclear footprint in other ways. 

Nuclear is critical for power nationally because of its importance for greener power and sustainability. The company is forecasting industry-leading high-single-digit growth for the next few years. 

O’Reilly Auto Parts: When Shareholder Deficits Are a Good Thing 

O’Reilly Auto Parts NASDAQ: ORLY is running a shareholder deficit, but this is a good thing in this case. The company’s cash flow, balance sheet, and ability to repurchase and retire shares aggressively make it good.

This effectively burns cash but also reduces the share count, down 3.5% in F2024, and increases shareholder leverage. 

Regarding the business, it is expecting to post low-single-digit growth in 2025 and may have underestimated its business. Tariffs are viewed as positive for the auto parts industry, as consumers will likely turn to used cars and repairs versus buying new ones. 

American Tower Corporation: The Infrastructure of AI Infrastructure

American Tower Corporation NYSE: AMT is a REIT focused on telecommunications, including data centers. Its business is supported by widening telecom networks, 5G, and, now, AI.

Results in 2024 included top-line contraction, offset by operational improvements, margin expansion, and earnings growth.

Earnings remain robust and continue to support a healthy dividend in early Q2 2025. Analysts rate the stock as a Buy and project another 12% upside by year’s end.

As for the dividend, AMT yielded around 3.25% in early Q2 and has a track record of steadily increasing its payout over time.

Monster Beverage Takes Share in Energy Drink Market

Monster Beverage NASDAQ: MNST is an energy drink leader taking share in 2025. Results include slower growth due to consumer shifts, offset by favorable industry trends and an outlook for acceleration. 

Strong demand and pricing increases will underpin the acceleration, including profitability. 

The margin is expected to widen in 2025 and drive accelerated bottom-line performance. Bottom-line performance is critical because of cash flow and repurchases. Stock buybacks reduced the count by more than 5% for 2024. 

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