Advanced Micro Devices is Building Momentum with AI: Buy the Dip

Key Points

• Advanced Micro Devices' share price plunged after the Q3 report because momentum is building but not fast enough to suit the market. 
• The hurdle is its ecosystem but gains are made quarterly, increasing the long-term potential for this AI play.
• Advanced Micro Devices opportunities lie in data center market share gains as the ecosystem develops, a global upgrade cycle in PCs, and embedding AI into the IoT. 

As slow as it is to build, Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ: AMD is gaining momentum with AI and is well-positioned for long-term market share gains. The primary hurdle is its AI ecosystem, which lags behind NVIDIA’s NASDAQ: NVDA development, but the ecosystem is improving quarterly, aided by internal advances and acquisitions. 

Today’s takeaway for investors is that this semiconductor company is growing due to its AI position, growth is accelerating, and the negative impact of legacy business will soon shift to a tailwind. The long-term outlook is bright because, once built, one AI-capable data center is as good as another for most applications, and AMD products are top-notch. Partnerships with Amazon, Google, Oracle, and Lenovo attest to that fact. 

Advanced Micro Devices Share Price Suffers After Strong Q3

Advanced Micro Devices' share price plunged following the Q3 results because they failed to live up to the high bar set by the market and analysts' revisions. Even so, the $6.82 billion in revenue is up 17.2% yearly, accelerating from Q2’s nearly 9% advance and outpacing the consensus figure by 160 basis points. Q3 revenue is a record driven by record results in the Data Center segment, which grew by 122%, sustaining the triple-digit growth pace set in Q2. Data Center growth is centered on Instinct GPU and EPYC CPU sales. It is up 25% sequentially, showing solid momentum. 

Client sales were also strong, up 29% year over year and 26% sequentially. The growth in this sector is driven by demand for the Zen 5 Ryzen processors for laptops and is not expected to diminish. Enterprises are shifting to AI-optimized laptops and PCs because of proven productivity improvements and their impact on the bottom line.

Weaknesses were seen in the gaming and embedded segments, but the news is not entirely bad. Gaming is down significantly on end-market normalization, with weakness amplified by macroeconomic headwinds, while Embedded is on the cusp of returning to growth. Embedded is down 25% YOY but only 8% sequentially compared to the 29% sequential decline in gaming due to improved demand in some end markets. The forecast for 2025 is for the segment to revert to growth, supported by the IoT industry, which is expected to accelerate. IoT growth is facilitated by a dual tailwind that includes AI and 5G. The 5G connection is vital for IoT performance, and the networks and applications are growing daily. 

Margin news is mixed. Adjusted gross and operating margin improved by 300 basis points YOY but less than the market had hoped. The salient detail is that margin expanded, profitability improved, bottom-line results were leveraged, and gains are expected to stick. The $0.92 in adjusted EPS is only as expected regarding the analyst's consensus reported by Marketbeat. Still, it is up 33% YOY, sustaining a healthy cash flow, balance sheet and value gains despite increased investment and acquisitions. 

Analysts Cap Gains for 2024, Pointing to AMD’s Potential for Long-Term Gains

The analyst response to AMD’s results is mixed. The bulk of revisions tracked by Marketbeat include reduced price targets, which are capping gains for the market. The consensus of revisions is near $178, down about $10 overnight, suggesting an 18% gain from critical support levels is possible. The group continues to rate with a consensus of Moderate Buy/Buy and shows a high conviction with 90% rating at Buy or better. Takeaways from the chatter are that AMD is executing well, and the AI business is good, but headwinds inducing legacy markets remain. Although momentum is slow to build, the roadmap for AI is solid and likely to gain traction in 2025 as the ecosystem is improved. 

Advanced Micro Devices' share price fell nearly 10% following the release but may already be near the bottom. The move took the market to a critical support target that aligns with the low end of the analysts' target range, which is a potential floor for the price action. The critical target is near the $150 level and likely to produce a solid rebound if and when touched.