Analyst Sentiment, Revenue Growth Will Lead AbbVie Stock Higher

Key Points

• Shares of AbbVie made a slight recovery the day after the company’s quarterly earnings. 
• While Humira sales are down as biosimilar competition expands, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are picking up the slack. 
• Analyst price targets suggest that ABBV stock may have found a floor from which to spring higher.  

AbbVie Inc. NYSE: ABBV stock is recovering after falling over 4% in the week preceding its earnings report on April 26, 2024. As the market closed on Monday, April 29, ABBV stock posted a gain of 1.19% that could signal a floor is in after a recent sell-off in the biopharmaceutical company’s stock. 

The headline numbers in the earnings report were solid enough. Revenue and earnings both were above estimates. And while earnings per share were about 6% lower year-over-year, revenue was slightly higher. That’s significant as you look deeper into the report.  

One reason the company cited for lower earnings was a slight decline in global net revenues from its immunology portfolio. This area includes AbbVie’s Humira, Rinvoq, and Skyrizi drugs.  

Humira Sales are Down 

Humira has been closely watched for several quarters for the effect that biosimilar drugs will have. For the quarter, Humira accounted for revenue of $2.27 billion, which was down 35.9% year-over-year. That’s larger than in some recent quarters, and it’s the key reason ABBV stock sold off 6% on the day of earnings. However, the company said the results were in line with its prior guidance.  

And the company has been planning for this. That’s where Skyrizi and Rinvoq come in. Global Skyrizi revenue was just over $2 billion, a YOY increase of 47.6%. For Rinvoq, the $1.09 billion was a YOY increase of 59.3%. In February, AbbVie raised its guidance for both drugs based on the likelihood of expanded labels that will increase each drug’s addressable market. Investors also need to remember that doctors can prescribe Skyrizi and Rinvoq for some of the same conditions as Humira.  

Is ABBV Stock Overvalued? 

AbbVie currently trades at 47.9x earnings, but that’s significantly lower (about 14x) when you look at forward earnings. By that singular measure, ABBV stock is undervalued not only among pharmaceutical stocks but also with the broader market.  

What may be more concerning to investors is the company’s declining revenue trend. In the last three quarters of 2023, YOY revenue was down 5.4%. In the current quarter, the top line was slightly higher YOY, as was the company’s operating margin, which was another area of concern.  

Analysts are Leading ABBV Stock Higher 

Since the earnings report, the AbbVie analyst ratings on MarketBeat show that two analysts have lowered their price targets on ABBV stock. However, both estimates are above the consensus target. Both analysts also maintained their Overweight and Outperform ratings on ABBV stock, which is equivalent to a Buy rating.  

That analyst sentiment and the company’s forward guidance should put a floor on ABBV stock around its current price of $161.52. From there, the analysts tracked by MarketBeat give ABBV stock an upside of 7.9%. And with that high single-digit growth, investors get a dividend king that has increased its dividend for 52 consecutive years and has a current dividend yield of 3.84%.