Bright Future for Clean Hydrogen Stocks? Analysts Are Watching

Key Points

• Clean hydrogen companies have generally struggled in recent months, even as the broader industrials sector has performed well.
• While demand for hydrogen technology exists, the industry is limited by low production levels and other barriers.
• Among clean hydrogen firms, Bloom Energy stands out for its integration with the fast-growing AI and cloud computing spaces.

Industrials stocks have thrived in the last year amid a rush of spending, much due to the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and other government support. The benchmark Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA: XLI is up more than 36% in the last year as a result.

However, one section of the industrials space has so far failed to perform up to the standards set by the sector more broadly. Stocks of clean hydrogen companies—those involved in the development of technologies and products to generate sustainable energy using hydrogen—have more typically fallen in the last year. With the hydrogen market seen as broadly uninvestable and with national production targets remaining out of reach, McKinsey recently cut its U.S. green hydrogen forecast for 2030 by 70%. 

Plug Power’s Stock Still Far Below All-Time High of Nearly $70

Hydrogen fuel cell leader Plug Power Inc. NASDAQ: PLUG is a cautionary tale of what may happen when investor enthusiasm for a new and potentially disruptive energy technology is stopped in its tracks. Green hydrogen was seen as a powerful alternative to high-emission legacy energy sources and Plug was among a number of hydrogen firms to see an increase in attention years ago in the lead-up to the Inflation Reduction Act.

However, Plug—like most other clean hydrogen firms—has struggled to deliver for investors. For Plug, this has meant plunging stock prices, as shares have dropped by almost 63% in the last year, as well as a cash crunch that has forced the company to halt a $290-million New York project.

That said, some analysts are still optimistic that Plug and other hydrogen companies will be able to increase production while keeping costs down, and Plug has a consensus price target of $5.01, more than 135% higher than current levels. This goal remains just a fraction of Plug's all-time high of nearly $70 per share, though.

FuelCell Buy the (Big) Dip?

Like Plug Power, FuelCell Energy Inc. NASDAQ: FCEL is a clean hydrogen firm that is built on a promising technology that allows for energy generation with near-zero emissions. However, while the company's theoretical value to the green energy industry is significant, its stock price has plummeted as the firm has failed to turn a profit or to successfully scale its production. FCEL shares currently trade for just 34 cents each, down more than 68% in the last year.

Still, it's possible that the company will stage a turnaround, as it recently signed a memorandum of understanding with Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. The key benefit to FuelCell in this agreement is Korea Hydro's significant power plant infrastructure, which saves the former company from having to build out its operations. The move could also mark a pivot toward FuelCell's development of sustainable energy operations in Asia.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about FuelCell, assigning the firm a consensus price target of 88 cents per share, or 150% above current levels, but agreeing on a Hold rating for now.

Bloom Energy: Standout AI and Cloud Partnerships

Bloom Energy Corp. NYSE: BE uses solid oxide fuel cell technology to generate energy with minimal emissions. Like both firms above, it is also involved in clean hydrogen. However, Bloom Energy's key support of artificial intelligence and cloud spaces has helped it to grow its revenue competitively at a time when other firms have struggled.

Bloom reported almost $336 million in revenue in the second quarter, more than 11% above the prior-year quarter. At the same time, it boosted its gross margin considerably. Combined with new contracts with data center users like CoreWeave, it appears that Bloom may have rosier prospects than some other clean hydrogen firms. Analysts see 58% upside potential, with nine out of 19 analysts rating the stock a Buy. It has also only declined by 8% in the last year, a much shallower dip than other hydrogen companies.

Awaiting a Secular Shift

As businesses are expected to increase their reliance on clean energy into the future, hydrogen firms like these could benefit from a large-scale shift. However, without a path toward growing revenue, margins, and profitability, some clean hydrogen companies may not have the staying power to capitalize on this future demand. Among the companies above, Bloom Energy stands out for its positioning with customers in the fast-growing AI and cloud spaces in particular.