Buy On Holdings Stock Before the Market Catches Its Second Wind?

Key Points

• On Holdings Q2 results were mixed relative to the analysts' consensus but sufficient to sustain the uptrend in share prices.
• Every detail is good; the company is gaining momentum, and the guidance is likely cautious. 
• Analysts are raising their price targets and leading this market toward a new all-time high. 

On Holdings’ NYSE: ONON Q2 results were mixed regarding the analysts' expectations, but that is the only thing to hold against them. The strengthening of the Swiss franc impacts the details, which are still robust in every way and driving the stock price higher. 

The critical detail is that this athletic apparel maker continues gaining traction, and its share prices will increase in time. The takeaway is that investing is more like a marathon than a sprint, and this race is less than half over. Sales are growing at a robust pace but still a drop in the bucket compared to consumer industry leader Nike NYSE: NKE, more so when compared to the global athletic shoe sales outlook, leaving ample share to be gained. 

On Holdings Growth Accelerates: Reaffirmed Guidance is Cautious

On Holdings had a stellar quarter despite missing the analysts' estimates for earnings. The revenue of $656.15 (converted from CHF; amounts may not be exact) is up 28% on strength in all metrics and outpaced the consensus estimate by 100 basis points. The outperformance is slim but strong in light of the revisions trend; most revisions in the last 90 days were upward, and growth is accelerating and setting another record. 

Internally, Asia-Pacific and Apparel were the strongest, with gains of 73% and 63% reported, but all segments produced double-digit gains. The core shoe segment grew by 27%, the core European market by 22%. Accessories grew by 23%; US sales grew by 25%; DTC up 28% across the system; wholesales up 27.6%. There is nothing wrong with those numbers. 

Margin is also an area of strength. The company widened its gross margin by forty basis points and increased the adjusted EBITDA margin by 200 bps to significantly improve cash flow and profitability. Adjusted EBITDA is up 44%, driving triple-digit GAAP and adjusted EPS gains. The adjusted EPS of $0.16 fell short of the consensus by a penny but is up 250% compared to last year, and guidance is strong. 

The company reaffirmed its guidance for at least 30% top-line growth and the expectation that margins will continue widening. The company CEO is forecasting business to strengthen in the back half of the year, stating that the company is well on track to hit its goals. This suggests that guidance is cautious and outperformance is expected. 

On Holdings Accelerates Improving Shareholder Value

The balance sheet improvements are among the critical details from On Holding’s Q2 report. The company increased its liability, offset by the positive cash flow quarter, the 32% increase in cash, a 14% increase in working capital, and a 15% increase in shareholder equity. Equity gains are accelerating from last year’s 6% gain and will continue to drive value as the year and year’s progresses. Among the CAPEX plans for this year is to continue with the automation of U.S.-based warehousing, which will improve leverage now through efficiency and provide improved scalability for the coming years, another driver for margin. 

Analysts Lead On Holdings to Fresh Highs

The analysts' response to the news is bullish. The first revision tracked by MarketBeat.com is a reiterated Outperform rating with a price target of $47, which aligns with the trends. The trends in sentiment have the consensus rating edging higher from Moderate Buy to Strong Buy over the last two quarters and the consensus price target up 35% to $43.65, with most fresh targets in the range of $45 to $55 or a gain of 12% to 37.5%. A move to the consensus would align the market with the all-time high.

The market response is favorable. The stock price faltered immediately after the release, but the market quickly found its footing. It is now up more than 5%, showing support at the 30-day moving average and a strong buy signal in the indicators. The stochastic and MACD indicators show bullish crossovers with room to move higher, suggesting this market could advance to the $44 level or higher. The $44 level is today’s critical resistance point; a move above it would likely lead to another sustained rally and a high potential for a new all-time high.