Globalstar: The Next Big Satellite Winner After Deal With Apple?

Key Points

• Globalstar stock has shot up massively after its expanded deal with Apple was announced.
• The company sees its revenue over doubling and its margins increasing once its new equipment is launched.
• There may be big value in this stock compared to a company like AST SpaceMobile, which is up over 250% in 2024.

Globalstar NYSEAMERICAN: GSAT is a stock that had fallen by the wayside for many investors throughout 2024, until recently. Shares were down 45% through the end of October. However, in just two trading days afterward, they rose 53%. This was due to the communications company’s expanded deal with tech giant Apple NASDAQ: AAPL, which has put Globalstar back on the radar of many investors. Now, shares sit just under flat on the year, providing a total return of -5%.

Still, the stock has a stark lack of coverage. This is evident when looking at the Wall Street price targets that MarketBeat tracks for the company. Only one analyst has the stock rated; however, the single rating is certainly interesting. Craig Hallum recently updated its price target to $5. Based on the current share price, the company’s shares would need to rise 170% to meet it.

Below, I’ll analyze the deal with Apple that caused shares to skyrocket and provide my outlook.

Globalstar: Satellite Connectivity for Remote Areas & Emergency Situations

Globalstar is a mobile satellite services (MSS) company. It uses low earth orbit (LEO) satellites as well as ground infrastructure to provide mobile phone services to customers. The company uses satellites to enable communication in remote areas beyond standard cell coverage.

Industries like emergency response, commercial fishing, and wildlife tracking are big users of the service. Last quarter, 95% of Globalstar's revenue came from its communications service. It also sells devices which made up the rest. In 2023, 49% of the company’s revenue came from Apple.

The company established its initial 2022 partnership with Apple to provide emergency features to iPhone users. iPhone 14 and newer models can now send emergency texts. They have the necessary hardware to do so when outside their regular cell network. Apple invested $450 million in Globalstar to help expand its infrastructure. Globalstar dedicates 85% of its network capacity to Apple.

Detailing the Expansion of Globalstar’s Apple Partnership

In the latest expansion of its partnership with Globalstar, Apple’s investment becomes much larger. The company will invest up to an additional $1.5 billion in Globalstar. This includes a $1.1 billion cash payment spread over several quarters. Of the cash, $232 million will go to refinance a portion of Globalstar’s approximately $400 million in debt. Apple will also purchase a 20% equity stake in Globalstar’s subsidiary Globalstar SPE, which holds its Extended MSS Network assets. The rest of the cash will go toward launching new satellites and expanding the company’s ground infrastructure.

The company will get higher service payments from Apple. Also, $30 million of previously committed annual service fees will be paid faster. The company believes that once the expanded services to Apple launch, the firm’s annual revenue will be more than double that of 2024. It also sees its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin increasing.

However, when that might occur is still up in the air. On the company’s earnings call, an analyst at Morgan Stanley suggested it could take two to three years. The Globalstar management team did not provide any details on the timeline.

Globalstar Could Provide a Big Investment Opportunity, But Caution Is Warranted

Overall, it seems clear that Globalstar’s revenue and EBITDA will increase substantially at some point in the next few years. The more interesting aspect of Globalstar would be its ability to expand its services to Apple customers beyond simple text messaging. Walter Piecyk of LightShed Partners, a provider of institutional investor research, believes an expansion into voice calling services is reasonable to expect. This could bring significantly more revenue to Globalstar.

Apple is expanding its satellite service to compete with U.S. telecoms T-Mobile’s NASDAQ: TMUS, Verizon’s NYSE: VZ, and AT&T’s NYSE: T entries into the space. T-Mobile is using SpaceX's Starlink. Verizon and AT&T are working with AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS.

In comparison to AST SpaceMobile, Globalstar’s next twelve months price-to-sales ratio is around twice as high. However, that does not account for revenue increases from the Apple deal that will happen further out. There may be an opportunity in Globalstar compared to AST SpaceMobile, a stock whose shares have run up over 250% in 2024. However, it is too early to say. Globalstar will hold its Investor Day on Dec. 12. After that, a better assessment of the stock will likely be possible.