Gold Rush Continues: Time to Buy More or Take Profits?

Key Points

• Gold has surged nearly 40% over the past year, outperforming the stock market's 32% gain.
• The rally is driven by global uncertainty, a weakening U.S. dollar, and expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has gained nearly 30% YTD, but overbought signals suggest investors may want to wait for a potential pullback.

Gold’s record-breaking surge continues, with the precious commodity now up close to 40% over one year, outpacing the stock market’s benchmark, which gained 32% over the same time. As gold ETFs and several gold mining stocks soar, the question arises: Is now the time to buy, or should investors wait for a pullback?

What’s Driving the Gold Rally?

Much of gold’s rise has been driven by uncertainty in global markets, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and ambiguity surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. However, in recent weeks leading up to the first interest rate cut, the price of gold surged, primarily due to easing inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Data had signaled a slowing U.S. economy, causing investors to flock to the perceived safety of gold. With inflation nearing the Fed’s 2% target, gold again emerged as a preferred hedge against potential economic turbulence.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar has also contributed significantly to gold’s rise. A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign buyers, increasing demand. Additionally, expectations that the Fed will continue cutting rates have further pushed the price of gold upward. These dynamics have supported the precious metal’s rally and boosted silver, which has gained almost 35% during the same period.

One of the most popular ways to gain exposure to gold, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF NYSE: GLD, recently broke out of a multi-week consolidation phase, hitting new all-time highs. Before the Fed’s 50-basis point rate cut last week, GLD posted a substantial 24.8% year-to-date gain. Since then, the ETF has risen nearly 4%, continuing to trade at elevated levels.

Given these developments, the question becomes whether it’s still a good time to invest in gold or if waiting for a pullback makes more sense. Let’s examine the technical positioning of the ETF and a few key gold stocks to assess the potential risks and rewards.

GLD: Momentum Continues, but Overbought Signals Flashing

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF, which provides exposure to the price of gold without requiring investors to hold the commodity physically, has been on a tear. Year-to-date, it’s up 29%, and over the past 12 months, it has climbed an impressive 40%. However, after its significant 6% rally this month, GLD’s momentum may be reaching an inflection point.

The ETF’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed into overbought territory, sitting at 74.37. This suggests that a short-term pullback could be imminent. While long-term investors may still see an upside in gold, now may not be the ideal time to initiate a new position. It might be prudent to wait for a consolidation or a pullback to reset the RSI before adding to or starting a new position in GLD. 

Newmont: Leader in the Gold Mining Space

Newmont NYSE: NEM, the largest U.S.-based gold mining stock by market capitalization, has been closely tracking the price of gold, surging nearly 35% year-to-date. The stock is up 5% this week alone, reflecting the recent strength in the commodity. With a forward P/E ratio of just 14.98, Newmont remains fairly valued compared to its peers.

However, like GLD, Newmont’s stock has reached the high end of its current uptrend, with an RSI of 70.86, indicating potential overbought conditions. While it may not be a sell signal just yet, those looking to enter a fresh position may want to wait for a dip closer to its rising 20-day simple moving average (SMA) to capitalize on future upside potential.

Barrick Gold: A Relative Bargain?

Barrick Gold NYSE: GOLD, a Canadian gold production giant, has underperformed compared to its peers. The stock has struggled year-to-date, remaining stuck in a tight consolidation near its 52-week high. However, this underperformance could offer an opportunity. Barrick appears less overextended, with an RSI of 57 and a forward P/E of 11.81 than other gold mining stocks.

Barrick could experience relative strength and catch up to its competitors if the sector surges. Investors may want to consider Barrick a potential value play within the gold mining space.