Is Rivian Stock on the Verge of a 100% Rally?

Key Points

• Rivian shares have been struggling to reverse the downtrend that started in 2021.
• However, they've gone from strength to strength since hitting a low in April.
• Last week's update and subsequent analyst updates point to a huge upside in the near term. 

Despite sinking to an all-time low in April, shares of Rivian Automotive, Inc. NASDAQ: RIVN have been on a heater in recent weeks. The electric vehicle (EV) maker, considered one of the stronger alternatives to the king of EVs, Tesla Inc NASDAQ: TSLA, has seen its shares gain more than 80% in the past ten weeks. 

While they have a long way to go to get back to even last year's high, they're building up a head of steam and catching Wall Street's attention for all the right reasons. 

Rivian's Fresh Upward Momentum

The turnaround, which started in the back half of April, gained some serious momentum in May, aided by Rivian's Q1 results. While losses for the quarter were deeper than expected, revenue growth of more than 80 % YoY just couldn't be ignored, especially with the stock trading down 95% from 2021's all-time high. To put that into context, Rivian's most recent quarterly revenue figure was 24 times its final quarterly revenue print of 2021. 

While the EV industry, in general, is hurting from a dip in demand, those who believe in its long-term potential would do well to take note of Rivian's comparatively attractive valuation today. Beyond the strong revenue growth, last week's big announcement lit a fresh fire under the stock and sent it to its highest level since February. 

The news came out on Tuesday of last week that Rivian is forming a joint venture with Volkswagen "to create next-gen electrical architecture and best-in-class software technology." Rivian will bring its expertise in all things electrical. At the same time, Volkswagen will invest $1 billion in Rivian in return, setting the stage for what could be a very profitable partnership for both parties. 

Rivian's Partnership with Volkswagen: Driving Analyst Optimism

Many heavyweight analysts were immediately bullish on the news, particularly Rivian stock. The team at Wedbush reiterated their Outperform rating on the stock while upping their price target to $20. In a note to clients, analyst Dan Ives wrote, "This is a core game changer for Rivian and changes the capital structure of the company looking ahead for the story and the Street's view at a key time.” Even with the rally continuing this week, his refreshed price target still points to a further upside of some 30%. 

The Needham & Company team matched that $20 price target, with Piper Sandler going even higher with a $21 price target. This has already been topped this week, with Canaccord Genuity Group coming out on Monday with a buy rating on Rivian shares and a $30 price target, which points to almost 100% in targeted upside. 

The Canaccord team is particularly bullish on Rivian's prospects following the announcement of its partnership with Volkswagen and sees the stock as being incredibly undervalued at its current price. Rivian's bullish vehicle delivery numbers over the past few days no doubt helped as well, and it feels as if the company has really turned a corner. 

Rivian's Stock Outlook Ahead of August Earnings

Rivian's next earnings report is in the first week of August, and expectations will be high for further confirmation of the stock's growth outlook. Investors should look for the stock to continue gaining in the coming weeks as investor confidence in the EV market returns and bargain prices are snapped up. This has already been seen with Tesla's stock, effectively a bellwether for the entire EV market. They've jumped more than 40% in the past three weeks, which should also make other beaten-down EV stocks, like Rivian, very appealing. 

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