MicroStrategy: Is This Bitcoin-Powered Stock a Buy or a Gamble?

Key Points

• MicroStrategy's stock performance is heavily correlated with the price of Bitcoin.
• MicroStrategy's software business revenue has declined while the company invests heavily in Bitcoin.
• Analysts are divided on whether MicroStrategy's Bitcoin-centric strategy will ultimately benefit shareholders.

MicroStrategy NASDAQ: MSTR is a business intelligence software company that helps organizations analyze their data to make better business decisions. But in recent years, MicroStrategy’s brand has become synonymous with Bitcoin. The company has been aggressively acquiring the cryptocurrency, which is turning its stock into a high-stakes wager on the future.

The company’s strategy has created a unique situation for investors because you are betting not only on the notoriously volatile Bitcoin market but also on MicroStrategy's ability to navigate the uncharted waters of a Bitcoin-centric business model. With Bitcoin's price surpassing the$69,000 mark and MicroStrategy's stock price hitting record highs, many investors are left to question if MicroStrategy is a wise investment, a risky gamble, or a combination of both.

Bitcoin’s Corporate Whale

MicroStrategy's commitment to Bitcoin is nothing short of unprecedented in terms of business strategy. As of July 31, 2024, the company's Bitcoin treasury had grown to 226,500 BTC, purchased at a cost exceeding $8.3 billion. This bold strategy has thrust MicroStrategy into the spotlight, transforming its stock into a bellwether for Bitcoin's price fluctuations. But does MicroStrategy's aggressive buying influence the cryptocurrency's value, or is the company merely riding the waves of market sentiment?

The company's strategy blends direct purchases using surplus cash with the strategic deployment of debt financing. MicroStrategy has skillfully leveraged favorable market conditions, issuing convertible notes to raise billions, fueling its ongoing Bitcoin accumulation. In a recent example, MicroStrategy announced an offering of convertible notes in September 2024, initially set at $700 million but later upsized and priced at $875 million of 0.625% convertible senior notes due 2028. The offering was ultimately completed at $1.01 billion. 

This approach, while introducing leverage, showcases MicroStrategy's unwavering dedication to Bitcoin as a cornerstone asset. The company even tracks its performance with a unique metric: "BTC Yield," which measures the percentage change in the ratio of its Bitcoin holdings to its diluted shares outstanding. Year-to-date, this yield stands at an impressive 12.2%, and the company aims to achieve an annual yield between 4-8% over the next three years. However, the question remains: can such an aggressive strategy, fueled by debt, truly deliver sustained value for MicroStrategy and its investors?

BTC Yield: MicroStrategy's Metric, But Is It Meaningful?

MicroStrategy has championed a new metric, "BTC Yield," to quantify the effectiveness of its Bitcoin strategy. This key performance indicator (KPI) measures the change in the ratio of the company's Bitcoin holdings to its Assumed Diluted Shares Outstanding, revealing the rate of Bitcoin accumulation per share. A positive BTC Yield suggests that the company is effectively growing its Bitcoin holdings faster than it is issuing shares. While MicroStrategy boasts a 12.2% BTC Yield year-to-date, this metric is coming under increasing scrutiny from some analysts.

Critics argue that BTC Yield, while innovative, fails to address the complexities of MicroStrategy's financial strategy fully. The metric doesn't account for the debt incurred through convertible notes, potentially masking the actual cost of amassing this Bitcoin treasury. Additionally, the BTC Yield doesn't reflect the overall market valuation of MicroStrategy compared to Bitcoin. As investors seek alternative options for Bitcoin exposure, such as spot Bitcoin ETFs, the long-term relevance of BTC Yield as a measure of investor value is uncertain.

MicroStrategy Software: The Other Side of the Coin

While MicroStrategy's daring Bitcoin strategy dominates the narrative, it's crucial to assess the health of its core enterprise analytics software business. MicroStrategy’s earnings report for Q3 is due out in just a few days, but the company's Q2 2024 earnings revealed a complex picture, with total revenues reaching $111.4 million, a 7.4% decline year-over-year. While subscription services revenue grew by a respectable 21.1%, reaching $24.1 million, this positive trend couldn't fully offset declines in product licenses, down 5.7% to $33.4 million, and product support, which decreased by 6.6% to $61.7 million. This uneven performance raises questions about the software business's long-term growth trajectory and its strategic relevance within MicroStrategy's overall portfolio.

Examining MicroStrategy's financial health, a few red flags emerge. The company reported a significant net loss of $102.6 million in Q2 2024, driven in part by a $180.1 million impairment charge on its Bitcoin holdings. The company's operating margin for the quarter was a dismal -180%, reflecting both the Bitcoin-related impairment charge and a surge in operating expenses to $280.8 million. MicroStrategy's debt-to-equity ratio (D/E) sits at a concerning 1.31, indicating a substantial reliance on debt financing, which is primarily tied to its Bitcoin acquisition strategy.

These concerning financial metrics stand in contrast to MicroStrategy's stock performance, with shares reaching a 52-week high of $258. This discrepancy between financial fundamentals and stock price, driven by MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings, is reflected in the company's negative price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of over -30, signaling that investors are currently valuing MicroStrategy based on its potential in the Bitcoin market rather than its software business profitability.

While the growth in subscription services offers a glimmer of hope for the software business, investors should carefully consider whether this segment can become a strong enough engine to offset the risks and volatility inherent in MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, especially as its core software business seems to be struggling to generate consistent profitability.

A High-Risk, High-Reward Proposition

MicroStrategy's unconventional approach, essentially transforming itself into a Bitcoin proxy, offers investors a unique opportunity to participate in the cryptocurrency market. However, this strategy is not for the faint of heart. The company's performance is now intricately tied to the notoriously volatile Bitcoin market, and its software business, while showing pockets of growth, needs to generate consistent profits.

Investors enticed by MicroStrategy's potential for substantial gains must also be prepared for significant downsides. The company's heavy reliance on debt financing, coupled with the inherent volatility of Bitcoin, creates a high-risk scenario. MicroStrategy's upcoming Q3 earnings report, scheduled for release on October 30th, will be a crucial event for investors to watch closely. The report could offer valuable insights into the sustainability of the company's Bitcoin-centric strategy and the future direction of its software business.