Could This Entertainment Stock be the Belle of the Gaming Ball?

Key Points

• PENN Entertainment operates 43 land-based casinos in the United States, and its digital sportsbook ESPN Bet is active in 18 states and digital casinos in 4 states.
• PENN Entertainment has become an attractive acquisition target for its assets as its newly rebranded sportsbook. ESPN Bet rose to a 6% market share in Q1 2024.
• Rumored companies interested in acquiring part or all of PENN Entertainment include Boyd Gaming, MGM Resorts, DraftKings, and Flutter Entertainment.

The casino industry has been in positive normalization as it attempts to recover to pre-pandemic levels for foot traffic and revenues. However, the digital sports betting and iGaming segment continue to expand as a benefactor of the pandemic lockdowns. It continues to flourish as more states legalize online sports betting. PENN Entertainment Inc. NASDAQ: PENN is a double threat as both a land-based casino operator and an online sports betting and iGaming operator. This has drawn the interest of many potential suitors looking to grow their segment by acquisition.

PENN operates in the consumer discretionary sector of the domestic casino and gaming industry, with land-based casinos MGM Resorts International Inc. NYSE: MGM, Boyd Gaming Co. NYSE: BYD, and digital sports betting and iGaming companies like DraftKings Inc. NASDAQ: DKNG, and Flutter Entertainment NYSE: FLUT, which owns FanDuel.

The Pandemic Spurs Interest in Online Sports Betting

The pandemic spawned new fans of app-based sports betting. Since sports seasons were shut down due to COVID restrictions, fans jumped into fantasy sports leagues. As the re-opening came underway and sports resumed, sports betting with real money surged. This momentum continues accelerating as more states legalize online sports betting and iGaming. DraftKings saw its revenues grow double digits year-over-year (YoY) since the pandemic. Its last quarter had 54% YoY revenue growth.

The Breakup with Barstool Sportsbook Set PENN Back to Square One

PENN Entertainment, PENN Gaming, saw its stock rocket up to $142.00 by March 15, 2021. This was driven by the hopes of enormous business coming from its acquisition of Barstool Sportsbook, which had an online sports betting app. PENN acquired a 36% stake in Barstool Sportsbook in 2020 and fully acquired the rest of the company in February 2023.

Unfortunately, the high hopes didn’t come to fruition, and PENN decided to part ways with Barstool Sportsbook, selling it back to founder David Portnoy for $1 and additional terms. PENN would take an $850 million write-off on the investment.

PENN Entertainment: Rebranding as ESPN Bet for $1.5 Billion

PENN didn’t abandon digital sports betting. Instead, they had a makeover thanks to The Walt Disney Co. NYSE: DIS owned ESPN rebranding its sportsbook as ESPN Bet. PENN agreed to pay $1.5 billion in cash for the next decade. It also granted ESPN $500 million in warrants granting rights to purchase nearly 31.8 million shares of PENN. Analysts estimate ESPN Bet has around a 6% market share as of April 2024.

Starting over literally from scratch took a toll on its shares as they fell to a recent low of $13.50 on May 2, 2024. However, shares have bounced over 55% since the lows, surging by $21 on rumors of interested acquirers. PENN went from the proverbial ugly duckling to the belle of the ball in 2 months. Beauty is in the eye of the acquirer.

The Rumored Suitors for the Belle of the Ball

According to a letter to shareholders, activist investor Donerail Group has been pushing PENN to sell itself. The group also sharply criticizes PENN for overspending and overfocusing on the digital segment.

Unsurprisingly, the interested buyers for all parts of PENN Entertainment are all competitors, including MGM Resorts International, Draft Kings, Flutter Entertainment, and Boyd Gaming. Rumors emerged that Boyd Gaming approached PENN to acquire, notably interested in the digital assets. Rumors circulated that Flutter Entertainment could join Boyd in the takeover.

PENN Stock Completes the Cup Pattern Towards a Gap Fill

The daily candlestick chart for PENN showed an 11% gap down on February 15, 2024, due to weak earnings, creating gap fill levels at $22.30 and $20.46. The lower gap fill level at $20.46 also served as a cup lip line. Following its Q1 2024 earnings report on May 2, 2024, PENN's stock price declined to $13.50. Shares eventually formed a rounding bottom as they completed the cup pattern to retest the gap fill at $20.48 on July 11, 2024. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is grinding towards the 70-band. Pullback support levels are at $19.40, $18.35, $16.46, and $15.50.

PENN’s Q1 2024 Earnings Were Weak

PENN reported a Q1 2024 GAAP EPS loss of 76 cents, missing consensus estimates by 17 cents. Revenues fell 4% YoY to $1.61 billion, missing $1.63 consensus estimates. Eight of its properties achieved record combined earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and rent (EBITDAR).

A Look Under the Hood Reveals Growth is Accelerating for PENN

PENN opened its first ESPN Bets retail sportsbook in Detroit, Michigan, on April 25, 2024, in connection with ESPN's live NFL Draft coverage. ESPN Bet's digital database rose 71% YoY to 3.6 million, with 685,000 average monthly active users (MAUs). Interactive revenue grew 559% YoY to $207.7 million from $31.5 million in the year-ago period. Its online sportsbook (OSB) handles rose 96% YoY. Its iCasino MAUS rose 166% YoY, and gross gaming revenues (GGR) rose 32% YoY. ESPN Bet received 300,000 unique visitors directly from links in ESPN's Digital Products in March 2024. ESPN Bet will be integrated into the ESPN Fantasy App, the number 1 range Fantasy Sports All in the United States with 12 million fantasy football players.

An Omni-Channel Strategy Comprised of Physical and Digital Assets

PENN Entertainment has 43 properties in 20 states, 32 retail sportsbooks in 15 states, an online sportsbook in 18 states and Ontario, Canada, and an online casino in four states and Ontario, Canada. Its PENN Play loyalty program has over 30 million members and has added more than 3 million new members in the past two quarters.

PENN Entertainment analyst ratings and price targets are at MarketBeat. The consensus analyst price target of $25.03 implies a 21.6% upside. Eight analysts have a Buy rating, and eight have a Hold rating on PENN stock.