Silvaco Stock: Consider Early Investment in New Semiconductor

Key Points

• Silvaco Group went public in May and reported its first earnings last week.
• The firm beat earnings estimates and showed growth in essential products.
• Positive guidance for the rest of the year and an important new partnership are good signs.

Silvaco Group NASDAQ: SVCO is a small fish in the technology sector and semiconductor industry, with a market capitalization of less than $500 million. The firm could either see explosive growth or be destroyed by its larger competitors. The company provides software essential to designing and manufacturing semiconductors. The firm went public in early May and reported its first earnings last week.

Exploring Silvaco Group's Lines of Business and Expertise

Silvaco Group has three main products: TCAD software, EDA software, and SIP solutions. TCAD and EDA software contribute most to the firm's revenue. TCAD (Technology Computer-Aided Design) software optimizes the semiconductor fabrication process to help reduce costs and increase chip performance.

Designing chips requires EDA (Electronic Design Automation) software; cutting-edge chip design is nearly impossible without it. The United States government knows this. It's banned the export of EDA software to Chinese firms to help maintain the country's stranglehold on high-end chip design.

SIP (Silicon Intellectual Property) solutions are standard chip designs that provide basic chip functions and allow for the creation of more complex designs.

Silvaco competes against big players like ARM NASDAQ: ARM, Cadence NASDAQ: CDNS, and Synopsys NASDAQ: SNPS, which have market capitalizations of $80 billion or more.

Analyzing Silvaco Group's Impressive Earnings Report

The company went public at $19 per share. The shares dropped to a low of $16.34 but have increased to around $18 since reporting earnings on Jun. 20, 2024. Silvaco reported earnings per share (EPS) of 12 cents versus analyst estimates of 6 cents. The firm was in line with revenue expectations, coming in at $15.9 million. Let's dive deeper into these results to see where growth is coming from.

Total revenue increased 11% from the prior year. TCAD and EDA software drove revenue growth, rising by $2.4 million. SIP sales declined by $0.7 million. TCAD revenue was up 21% from the previous year, EDA revenue was up 13%, and SIP was down 57%. This is a positive sign, as the avenues for innovation and growth lie in TCAD and EDA software, while SIP is a more commoditized space. It's good to see Silvaco continuing to make headway in these products.

The firm expects its SIP business to recover. The lapse of a critical licensing agreement in the fourth quarter of 2023 contributed to the decline in SIP revenue. Silvaco renewed the deal in 2024 and has since seen SIP bookings (contract signings) pick up. The firm increased its estimate of yearly bookings growth for the second quarter from 18% to 29%. The firm renewed the agreement for the next five years. This should create stability in the business for the foreseeable future.

The firm was also able to increase its already impressive margins. Gross profit margin grew from 86% to 88% over the year, and non-GAAP operating margin increased from 21% to 15%. The firm is maintaining and growing its customer base. It renewed a contract with a key Japanese customer and added nine new customers over the quarter.

Silvaco Group's Optimistic Financial Guidance and Strategic Partnership with Micron

Silvaco provided encouraging guidance in its financial results. The firm expects revenue to increase by 16% to 22% over the full year compared to 2023. This is encouraging, as consensus estimates put the number at just over 17%, on the low end of the firm's guidance. It also expects non-GAAP operating income to increase between 82% and 150%. All six analysts covering the firm rate it a buy with an average forecasted price target of $25.83. This target implies an upside of 44%.

Another encouraging sign is that Silvaco is receiving support from one of the most prominent players in the semiconductor industry, Micron Technology NASDAQ: MU. Silvaco announced a partnership with Micron that will expand the scope of the software it provides Micron and extend the term of the contract. The agreement expands the partnership for Silvaco's new software that helps optimize silicon wafer fabrication.

This software allows wafer fabricators to run simulations that mimic the fabrication process. This will enable manufacturers to experiment with new designs without actually having to produce a physical wafer. This technology will reduce the time and the amount of material needed to create better wafers. Micron also made a $5 million investment in the technology through a convertible bond. Seeing big players in the industry partner with and invest in Silvaco's technologies is a good sign.

Investors should consider getting in early on Silvaco Group, as the firm aims to make a name for itself in the semiconductor industry.