Why Shopify Stock Has Analysts Buzzing About Big Gains

Key Points

• Shopify has started to rally again after a poor first half of the year.
• Its shares are still a long way from 2021's highs, but expectations are becoming increasingly bullish.
• The most recent analyst update is targeting a 30% upside from current levels.  

E-commerce giant Shopify Inc. NYSE: SHOP is one of those tech stocks still very much trading in the shadow of its COVID-era highs. Its story is one of an eye-watering rally and a painful, nearly 90% crash from which it's still recovering. 

However, that's the story when you look at the stock's history over the past five years. But zooming in on their more recent performance and future prospects, the story is very different. The optimist would say they've rallied more than 200% from 2022's low and have jumped 55% since the start of last month. 

As investors start to review their portfolios for the final quarter of the year in light of the Fed's rate cut last night, and look to get ready for 2025, they could do a lot worse than consider Shopify. 

Bullish Outlook: Redburn Sees Big Upside for Shopify

Earlier this week, the team over at Redburn Atlantic upgraded their rating on the stock to Buy, along with a price target of $99. Considering Shopify shares finished trading last night around $75, that's pointing to a targeted upside of more than 30%.

The basis for the Redburn team's bullishness is what they called Shopify's "industry-leading innovation, it's social media integrations and user-friendly platform." Having already delivered a solid earnings report in August, more on that below, Redburn sees potential for them to grow their EBIT margin by 40% by 2026. 

It's an impressively bullish stance to be taking, especially as the stock was struggling for the first half of the year. It hit a post-crash high in February before trending down all the way into August. Considering the benchmark S&P 500 index was powering to multiple all-time highs during the same period, you can get a sense of how lackluster Shopify's first half to the year was. 

Shopify’s Strong Q2 Earnings Confirm Recovery Rally

However, a rockstar report for its Q2 earnings put paid to any doubts that the recovery rally was over and, if anything, confirmed it's still very much intact. The company smashed expectations for both headline numbers, with its EPS coming in 30% higher than the consensus and revenue showing year-over-year growth of more than 20%. These beats were driven primarily by strong growth in its Merchant Solutions segment, whose revenue jumped 19% on the year, suggesting solid demand among Shopify's customer base.

As Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify, summed up with the report, "our Q2 results make it clear Shopify is rapidly strengthening its position as a leading enabler of global commerce and entrepreneurship". It's hard to argue with that, and the near 60% rally from their pre-earnings price speaks for itself. 

Shopify’s Momentum Offers Investors a Chance to Get Involved

Investors thinking about getting involved should watch for the stock to break above the $77 level where it was held last month and which is right around where it was trading yesterday. A firm break above that would confirm the little dip earlier this month was nothing more than a healthy dip that proved the bears can't take the stock much lower right now. 

If anything, it helped cool the stock's relative strength index (RSI), which, at 70, was starting to veer into extremely overbought conditions. Shopify's RSI dipped all the way down to the low 40s and is only now crossing back into the 60s. This suggests there's a ton of further room to the upside for the stock to rally. 

While Shopify has a long way to go to get back to its all-time highs from 2021, it's making progress, which is a lot more than many of its high-flying peers from the same era can say. February's high of around $90 is the next big target for this uptrend, and based on the company's current fundamental performance and analyst expectations, it should have no problem getting up there in the coming weeks.