A Tale of Two Titans: Unveiling the Value in Baidu and JD.com

Key Points

• Baidu, the leading search engine in China, is leveraging its existing user base and profits to expand into artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and autonomous driving.
• JD.com, a major e-commerce marketplace in China, is diversifying its business model into asset-light services to boost profitability.
• Despite the risks associated with the Chinese tech sector, Baidu and JD.com present compelling contrarian opportunities for long-term investors.

The past few years have been turbulent for Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges. Their stock prices have floundered despite major U.S. indexes reaching new heights. This disconnect is primarily driven by escalating political tensions between the U.S. and China and a lack of clarity regarding China's long-term economic trajectory. Understandably, many investors have opted to steer clear of Chinese companies altogether.

However, this widespread aversion presents a compelling opportunity for contrarian investors. Seasoned investors recognize that market pessimism can often create undervalued opportunities. 

Contrasting Paths to Tech Dominance

Baidu NASDAQ: BIDU and JD.com NASDAQ: JD have forged distinctly different paths despite emerging as early Chinese technology sector giants. Their journeys showcase contrasting business models and highlight the diverse opportunities within China's dynamic market.

Baidu, often called the Google of China, is the leading search engine in the country. Boasting a massive user base of 703 million, the company plays a vital role for Chinese consumers and advertisers. Consumers depend on Baidu for information retrieval, while advertisers leverage the platform's extensive reach and sophisticated targeting capabilities to connect with their desired audience.

Recognizing the importance of diversification, Baidu strategically reinvested profits from its core search engine business to expand into new high-growth sectors, including artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, streaming entertainment through its majority ownership of iQIYI (often referred to as the Netflix of China), and pioneering advancements in the autonomous driving industry.

JD.com often draws comparisons to Amazon, operating a sprawling first- and third-party e-commerce marketplace in China, renowned for its commitment to offering consumers attractive prices. The company's first-party business model mirrors that of Amazon, purchasing goods directly from suppliers and subsequently reselling them to consumers at a markup.

Additionally, JD.com facilitates a thriving third-party marketplace, enabling external merchants to leverage the platform's infrastructure and customer base in exchange for a fee. Unlike Baidu's asset-light approach, JD.com has invested heavily in building out its own comprehensive logistics network, encompassing everything from warehousing to last-mile delivery.

While enhancing customer satisfaction through rapid and reliable delivery, this commitment to infrastructure comes at a cost, putting pressure on JD.com's already slim retail margins.

Recognizing the limitations of its original business model, JD.com has strategically diversified into asset-light sectors, such as healthcare, fintech, and asset management in recent years. This expansion into higher-margin service revenue streams creates a more balanced revenue profile, enhancing the company's profitability.

Earnings: Charting the Course for Future Growth

Baidu’s earnings report for the second quarter of 2024 showcased its continued commitment to its AI Cloud computing and autonomous driving ventures. However, the report also revealed a slowdown in revenue growth for the company's core search engine business. Baidu's total revenue for the quarter reached $4.67 billion (RMB 33.9 billion), reflecting an 8% increase from the previous quarter but highlighting the ongoing challenges in the online marketing sector.

Operating income grew to $818 million (RMB 5.9 billion), a 14% increase from the first quarter, driven primarily by the performance of the AI Cloud business. Despite these positive signs, Baidu's online marketing revenue declined by 2% quarter-over-quarter, underscoring the sector's competitive pressures and macroeconomic headwinds.

JD.com’s earnings report for the second quarter of 2024 revealed a 1.2% year-over-year increase in net revenue, reaching $40.1 billion (RMB 291.4 billion). The growth was fueled primarily by the expansion of the company's services business. Operating income rose to $1.4 billion (RMB 10.5 billion), a 21% increase compared to the same period last year. Notably, JD.com's operating margin before unallocated items reached 3.9% for the second quarter, an improvement from 3.2% in the prior year.

This improvement underscores the company's strategic focus on enhancing efficiency and profitability.

Beyond the Balance Sheet: Strategy in a Dynamic Market

Baidu unveiled ERNIE 4.0 Turbo in June, a powerful upgrade to its large language model, designed to enhance speed, reduce costs, and improve efficiency. This advancement underscores Baidu's commitment to pushing the boundaries of AI innovation and leveraging ERNIE 4.0 Turbo to power its AI Cloud computing business and develop new AI-powered products and services.

Further solidifying its leadership in the autonomous driving space, Baidu announced that its autonomous ride-hailing service, Apollo Go, had initiated fully driverless operations across the Wuhan municipality, a major milestone highlighting the rapid progress of this innovative service.

JD.com announced a new $5.0 billion share repurchase program, signaling its confidence in its future and commitment to shareholder value creation. This program will allow JD.com to repurchase shares over the next 36 months, demonstrating its belief that the current share price undervalues the company's long-term potential.

A Contrarian Play: Why Baidu and JD.com Present Compelling Value

The past few years have been turbulent for Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges. Their stock prices have floundered despite major U.S. indexes reaching new heights. This disconnect is primarily driven by escalating political tensions between the U.S. and China and a lack of clarity regarding China's long-term economic trajectory. Understandably, many investors have opted to steer clear of Chinese companies altogether. 

However, this widespread aversion presents a compelling opportunity for contrarian investors. Seasoned investors recognize that market pessimism can often create undervalued opportunities. Baidu and JD.com, despite the recent headwinds, are demonstrating resilience and strategic innovation that positions them for long-term growth.

As the saying goes, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. While geopolitical concerns and macroeconomic uncertainty cast a shadow on Chinese companies, Baidu and JD.com continue to deliver solid earnings and execute strategic initiatives.

Baidu is aggressively expanding its AI and autonomous driving footprint, two sectors poised for exponential growth. JD.com, despite the challenges in its core e-commerce business, is driving profitability through diversification and demonstrating confidence in its future through share buybacks.

The market's skepticism towards Chinese companies has created a compelling discount for investors looking beyond short-term volatility. While risks certainly exist, the potential rewards for those who accurately assess these companies' long-term growth trajectory could be significant. For investors seeking exposure to the world's second-largest economy and the innovation emerging from it, Baidu and JD.com, at their current valuations, present a compelling contrarian opportunity.