Boeing Stock Upgraded After Beating Lockheed for Jet Deal

Key Points

• Boeing has won a major contract for fighter jets, beating its competitor Lockheed Martin, bringing additional potential upside for the coming quarters.
• Some institutional investors have decided to act ahead of the market as they realize the financial upside.
• Wall Street analysts could be pressured to boost their price targets in kind.

One of the new effects the new Trump presidency has on the markets is the rollout of policies and investment budgets, so traders are on the edge when it comes to the defense and aerospace sectors. The main focus has been centered in this space with regard to geopolitical tensions and the choice to stop funding some overseas defense programs, particularly in Europe. This new paradigm has created a new opportunity for one forgotten name.

President Trump has recently announced his choice of a manufacturer for fighter jets in the United States. This decision could represent millions (if not billions) in potential revenue for the company tasked with meeting orders and demand in the coming months.

The decision landed on Boeing Co. NYSE: BA, a surprise for many who thought that the bulk of favor and preference had been tilted to other peers such as Lockheed Martin Co. NYSE: LMT, making the potential swing in these two stocks more transparent for investors.

Once the biggest underperformer in the sector, Boeing now shows signs of strength in its price action, as well as the potential confidence and sentiment boost coming out of these recent developments within the government. Of course, investors have a lot more homework to do with Boeing’s potential as a portfolio addition, but lucky for them, that homework has already been done and posted here today.

Drivers Behind a Higher Ceiling for Boeing Stock

Typically, the main driver behind a stock’s price performance is the underlying earnings per share (EPS) growth rate, and in the case of Boeing, Wall Street analysts have pushed the envelope for a potentially higher ceiling in their forecasts. For the fourth quarter of 2025, these expectations lie at a net $0.05 EPS for Boeing.

While not the largest on a dollar basis, investors can lean on the fact that this outlook represents a massive swing compared to today’s net loss of $5.90 per share, justifying optimism when looked at on a percentage increase basis. However bullish this may seem, it only gets better as investors consider the following.

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These are old forecasts, meaning they were set even before President Trump announced new Boeing orders. Analysts will likely soon have to renew their EPS forecasts, and logically, they should go nowhere but up, and so will the stock price.

Comparing the price action to Lockheed Martin, whose stock has fallen to 72% of its 52-week high, Boeing now leads the way at 87% of its 52-week high to show investors (and the broader market) the best of bullish momentum in this industry.

Optimism Spread Through the Market

Weighing these factors for Boeing stock today, investors can understand the recent institutional buying in Boeing stock. Acting as if the news were already out, institutions decided to allocate up to $8.8 billion to Boeing stock over the past quarter, giving retail investors the ultimate vote of confidence in this stock's future.

In terms of size, UBS Asset Management led the pack in this recent institutional buying. They boosted their holdings in Boeing stock by as much as 14.9% as of February 2025. This new allocation netted their entire position at a high of $502.9 million today, something investors should keep in mind when doubting Boeing's potential future.

Speaking of optimism, investors can also check other Wall Street analyst sentiment measures, such as Citigroup's reiteration of a Buy rating. As of February 2025, these analysts saw Boeing's fair value is higher at $210 per share, representing a new 52-week high to attract even more momentum buyers into the stock, but that's not even the best part.

Implying that Boeing stock can rally by as much as 23.5% from where it trades today is exciting in itself, but again, it does not yet reflect the new potential for further upside under President Trump's recent announcement. There is also one major factor to keep in mind in this new upside thesis for Boeing.

Becoming China's main supplier of commercial aircraft has enabled Boeing to tap into an expected double-digit growth rate in orders for at least five years. This represents a major source of financial growth and a path to new higher valuations for investors brave enough to buy today.