Deere & Co.: A Quiet Industrial Leader Gaining Steam

Key Points

• Deere & Co. (DE) has surged over 20% YTD, outpacing the broader industrials sector and trading just below a key breakout level.
• Institutional inflows and solid earnings results reflect strong confidence in DE’s operational strength despite modest valuation concerns.
• Technically, DE is consolidating near 52-week highs and could trigger a breakout above $532, offering momentum-driven upside potential.

While the technology sector continues to dominate headlines with AI innovation and flashy growth stories, a different kind of leadership has been quietly taking shape. The industrial sector, often overlooked in recent years, has been staging an impressive outperformance in 2025, and few names represent this resurgence better than Deere & Co. NYSE: DE.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA: XLI is up nearly 10% year-to-date, outpacing its technology counterpart, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA: XLK, which has climbed 6.3% over the same period. Both ETFs are hovering near 52-week highs, but the industrials sector has seized the momentum this year. Within this space, Deere has emerged as a standout, surging over 20% year-to-date and currently trading just beneath a key breakout level.

Institutions and Analysts Are Holding Steady

Institutional confidence in DE remains strong. Over the past 12 months, institutional inflows have totaled nearly $14 billion, compared to just $7.7 billion in outflows. Notably, the last two quarters alone have seen almost $9 billion flow into the stock, compared to around $6 billion in outflows. This kind of activity from major funds signals a firm vote of confidence in the company’s long-term position and its potential in the current market regime.

Wall Street analysts also hold a generally positive outlook. DE currently carries a consensus Hold rating based on 21 analysts. While not as aggressive as a Buy rating, a Hold suggests that analysts see the stock as fairly valued, neither overpriced nor underappreciated at current levels.

The average price target aligns closely with DE’s current price, supporting the idea that investors already in the name may want to stay the course.

The Dividend Angle

Deere also offers something that appeals to conservative investors: a steady dividend. While its yield isn’t exceptionally high, currently 1.26%, the company has a solid four-year history of increasing its dividend. This makes DE a dependable source of modest income.

A stable dividend can help cushion short-term volatility while enhancing long-term returns in a market still shaped by interest rate uncertainty.

Momentum or Value, or a Blend of Both?

From a valuation standpoint, DE doesn’t exactly scream “value.” Its current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is just under 25, slightly elevated compared to the broader industrial sector.

Its forward P/E ratio sits around 23, which puts it in a bit of a no-man’s-land. It’s not cheap enough to be a value play, but not expensive enough to qualify as a high-growth tech stock either.

That said, Deere’s most recent quarterly earnings surprised to the upside. On May 15, 2025, the company reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $6.64 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $5.72 by a significant margin.

Revenue for the quarter came in at $11.17 billion, down nearly 18% year-over-year, but still comfortably above the consensus of $10.80 billion.

While earnings growth may decelerate this year, the company’s ability to outperform expectations in a challenging macro environment speaks to its operational resilience.

The Technical Setup Is Most Promising

Technically speaking, DE might be offering a compelling setup for momentum traders. The stock has been consolidating near its 52-week high for several weeks now, forming a bullish flag-like pattern. If it decisively clears the resistance around the $532 level, it could trigger a breakout move, potentially setting the stage for a multi-week advance.

Relative strength has also been notable.

Not only is DE outperforming the broader industrials sector (which itself is outperforming the market), but it’s doing so while many stocks continue to struggle with post-earnings drift or valuation resets. This type of relative strength often draws the attention of technical traders and momentum-focused funds.

DE’s Strength and Setup Cannot Be Ignored

Deere may not have the hype factor of an AI stock or the speculative appeal of a biotech breakout. Still, it’s demonstrating what strong institutional backing, solid execution, and consistent technical structure can look like in a mature company. With the industrials sector continuing to outperform and DE trading near a key technical inflection point, the setup is hard to ignore.

DE may not be an outright bargain for long-term investors at current levels, but it’s far from overpriced. For traders, a breakout above $532 could present a high-probability opportunity for upside continuation.

Whether you’re looking for momentum, relative strength, or simply a name with institutional backing and a dependable dividend, Deere is worth keeping on the radar as we move deeper into 2025.