FuelCell Energy Falters: Will Restructuring Spark a Comeback?

Key Points

• FuelCell Energy broke its downtrend, but a full reversal is unlikely. The likely scenario is that this stock has entered a range and will move sideways in 2025.
• Analysts' support is tepid, with little conviction in the consensus rating or price target, which is falling. 
• Short interest and dilution add risk to the investment, suggesting a move to retest recent lows or set new lows is possible for the stock price. 

FuelCell Energy’s NASDAQ: FCEL FQ4 2024 report had plenty of positive details, but the net result was not good. The company struggles to gain traction, losses continue to mount, and short interest grows, likely pushing the market lower.  Short interest, which was running above 25% at the end of November, was up 20% sequentially, helping to cap December market gains. However, the real danger is the shareholder dilution. Dilution in Q4 approached 2 million shares and increased the average share count by 35% year-over-year (YoY), eroding shareholder value.  

Because the Q4 results give no reason to buy the stock and there is downward pressure on price action, the question becomes how low the stock can go, and the answer is zero. A move to zero is unlikely; the company has value but struggles to unlock it. The more likely scenario is a move to retest the recent lows, which is good for about 40% below the critical resistance at a pair of moving averages. 

FuelCell Energy Reports Mixed Results for Q4

FuelCell Energy reported mixed results for Q4, with revenue outperforming and losses outpacing expectations. The company’s revenue grew by 120% YoY to $49.3 million, with strength in all segments. Power generation, the real opportunity, grew by 40% to account for nearly 25% of the total. It is ramping due to projects coming online and will provide stable revenue over time. 

However, the revenue is underpinned by a single large client, and no new wins have been revealed. The large client is Gyeonggi Green Energy in South Korea, which is part of a deal the market has known about for years. Likewise, gains in the service segment were driven by module exchanges that are unlikely to be repeated regularly due to the low client base and module lifespan. The average fuel cell can last more than 2.5 years with continuous use and up to 3 years or longer, depending on models and configurations. 

The margin is exceptionally bad. The company’s gross losses grew more than 600% YoY to over $10 million, operating losses grew by 12% to $41 million, and GAAP loss per share grew by 5% despite the increased count. The per-share loss topped the analysts' consensus reported by MarketBeat by $0.47 or 2700 basis points, raising questions about the company’s financial health. The balance sheet is capitalized, but cash and assets are declining, debt and liabilities are rising, and available cash will only last three quarters at the Q4 burn rate. This means the company will need to raise more capital in F2025, likely through share sales or other dilutive means, and may need additional capital in F2026. 

FuelCell Backlog Grows; Restructuring in Progress

FuelCell Energy’s backlog grew compared to the prior year but provided no lift for the market. The backlog increase is slim and due to the same large client mentioned before. With no new clients in the picture, the outlook is unchanged, and only cash-burn and dilution remain. However, the company is restructuring, so there is hope. It plans to focus on core technologies, including power generation, to support the grid and data centers. Unlocking the data center market would be a major win for this business. Data centers are power hungry, using more power as they scale in size and advance technology, and are shifting to green energy sources to feed the need. 

FuelCell Energy Broke Trend, But a Reversal Is Not Coming

FuelCell Energy’s stock price broke the downtrend in November, but a reversal is unlikely. The action following the release confirms resistance at critical moving averages that show bearish behavior among short-term traders and long-term investors. The most significant target for potential support is at the recent bottom, which may be reached quickly. If support is confirmed at this level, FCEL stock will likely move sideways within a trading range until more news emerges. If not, this stock could move below $5.65 and sustain downward momentum in 2025.