Utilities Stocks Are Powering Up: XLU on the Verge of a Breakout

Key Points

• The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund is up nearly 12% YTD, consolidating in a bullish wedge just under 3% from its 52-week high.
• Top holdings NextEra Energy, Southern Company, and Duke Energy show bullish formations, with earnings reports fast approaching.
• With rising political and economic uncertainty, the defensive utilities sector could attract investors seeking stability.

In the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) world, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSE: XLU demonstrates a notable bullish setup. The XLU is now up almost 12% year-to-date, consolidating in a bullish wedge just under 3% away from its 52-week high and trading above all major moving averages. 

As sector rotation runs rampant, the technical perspective suggests that this sector might be poised to benefit. If the XLU can break out and hold over last week's range and high, an initial target move towards $72 is plausible, with further momentum reaching its 52-week highs near $73. 

With growing uncertainty surrounding political and economic developments, particularly concerning future rate cuts, the utilities sector's defensive nature might attract investors seeking stability amidst market volatility.

Understanding the XLU

The XLU aims to track the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index's Utilities Select Sector, comprising companies from electric utilities, multi-utilities, independent power producers, and gas utilities. The fund employs a passive investment approach to mirror the index's investment performance. 

The ETF primarily focuses on U.S. exposure, with 100% of its assets currently allocated domestically. Within its subindustry exposure, Electric Utilities account for 58.6%, while Multi-Utilities comprise 26.4%.

The sector ETF's top three holdings all present bullish formations from a technical analysis perspective, which bodes well for the ETF and the sector as a whole. However, earnings are just around the corner for the sector's major players, so investors will need to react accordingly, as the events might influence the sector's overall direction.

Sector Influence: NextEra Energy's Earnings as a Potential Catalyst

NextEra Energy NYSE: NEE, the largest holding at 13.8%, is on the most upgraded stocks list with a Moderate Buy rating based on 15 analyst ratings. The stock has a 2.82% dividend yield and has been consolidating for several months. 

Momentum on a higher timeframe is to the upside, with the stock up over 18% YTD and outperforming the benchmark. NEE last reported earnings on April 23, 2024, with an EPS of $0.91, beating the consensus estimate by $0.11. Quarterly revenue was $5.73 billion, down 14.7% year-over-year, compared to analyst estimates of $6.28 billion. The consensus EPS forecast for the upcoming quarter is $0.93. Earnings are scheduled for July 24, potentially catalyzing a breakout above $75, which could influence the sector's direction and momentum.

Southern Company's Strong Upside Momentum and 52-Week Highs

Southern Company NYSE: SO, the ETF's second-largest holding at 8.03%, has a Hold rating based on 13 analyst ratings. The company has projected earnings growth of 7.25% for the full year and will report its next earnings on August 1. SO last announced its earnings on May 2, 2024, with an EPS of $1.03, beating the consensus estimate by $0.13. Quarterly revenue was $6.65 billion, up 2.6% year-over-year, compared to analyst estimates of $6.59 billion. 

The consensus EPS forecast for the upcoming quarter is $0.93. In earnings, SO has strong upside momentum, with the stock trading at 52-week highs after breaking out of a lengthy consolidation eight trading sessions ago.

Trading Near 52-Week Highs: Duke Energy's Trend

Duke Energy NYSE: DUK, the third-largest holding with a 7.73% weighting, has a market capitalization of $82.9 billion and an impressive dividend yield of 3.81%, with a Moderate Buy rating based on 11 analyst ratings. 

YTD, the stock has slightly underperformed the above two, with shares up just under 11%. However, DUK is trading near its 52-week highs and in a solid uptrend, consolidating at its 5-day SMA. DUK will report its earnings on August 6. Previously, DUK released its earnings results on May 7, 2024, with an EPS of $1.44, beating the consensus estimate by $0.05. Quarterly revenue was $7.67 billion, up 5.4% year-over-year, compared to the consensus estimate of $7.31 billion. The consensus EPS forecast for the upcoming quarter is $0.95.

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