Warren Buffett goes ex-tech and pro-oil, sell Apple buy Chevron?

Key Points

• Buffett has rotated his newly realized profits from Apple stock into the opposite end of the spectrum, Chevron stock. 
• Upping his stake by 14.4% is an understatement, considering what brews under the energy sector today.
• Chevron is above competitors in growth and upside, while Apple lies under its peers; the decision is more than justified.

Every market brings you a cycle to take advantage of, that is for sure, and there will always be cycles to come. Warren Buffett has been quoted saying that timing the market can turn out to be a futile attempt for the average investor; of course, he wasn’t talking about himself now that he has been caught red-handed timing the cycle that is starting soon.

In the latest round of capital rotation in the investment giant Berkshire Hathaway NYSE: BRK.A, you can spot what Buffett himself has been thinking about the sectors that could outperform in the coming months; here’s a hint: It includes the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA: XLK and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA: XLE.

For reasons that you too will learn today, Buffett has been cutting some of his paper gains in Apple NASDAQ: AAPLE stock while at the same time rotating some of this newfound liquidity into the promising story found in Chevron NYSE: CVX for the coming months. It all starts with the cycle and macro forces at play, and here they are.

Align your portfolio this way

Understanding that the technology stocks sector may be a bit overextended today, particularly after seeing names like NVIDIA NASDAQ: NVDA breaking past all-time highs almost every month, investors like yourself may be looking to find other sectors that could pose the opportunity to squeeze further profits.

Spreading the past twelve-month performance between the technology sector and the energy stocks that sit on the opposite end, you can see that energy has underperformed by as much as 45.3% over this period, begging the question of when the cycle will end and rotate the other way.

That time could be coming sooner than you think, now that the FED is looking to cut interest rates this year, an event that could go as quickly as May, according to the FedWatch tool from the CME Group NASDAQ: CME. What happens if rates do go down?

Since the value of money is tied to the trend in interest rates, the dollar index could lower if or when the FED cuts rates. A lower dollar drives oil prices higher (good for Chevron) and makes domestic consumption decline (alarming for Apple); so, Warren, is timing the market as futile as it seems?

Even analysts at The Goldman Sachs Group NYSE: GS have expressed their view toward the manufacturing sector, maybe betting on the lower dollar sparking new export demand from the U.S. They are pointing toward a breakout of the sector, which of course, includes Chevron as a prime member for rising profits.

One word of caution: this does not mean you should dump all of your Apple stock in case you own any; guys like Buffett can sell a stock only to rebalance their portfolio or to book some profits to be reinvested in other more attractive deals.

So, here are the reasons why – beyond the macro – Chevron can be more attractive than Apple.

The one thing to chase

If there’s anything your portfolio should be after in this coming cycle, it is growth and above-average growth. When it comes to Apple and its peers, growth is a lacking factor considering today’s analyst projections, and just the opposite is the case for Chevron.

Taking the energy stocks as a group, they are expected to grow their earnings per share by an average rate of 7.1% over the next twelve months. Analysts believe that Chevron stock can jump 14.6% to be above the industry average and superior to its close competitor, Exxon Mobil NYSE: XOM, which expects only 8.3% growth.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, you have the mega-cap technology stocks, which are expected to grow their EPS by a respective 11.2% over the next year; Apple sits well below this average at only 8.4%; it also happens to be below its closest competitor Microsoft NASDAQ: MSFT who expects to see 13.1%.

Knowing what you know now, it should come as no surprise to learn that Chevron – in its $180.9 price target – brings you a 17.0% potential upside, while Apple only comes at 12.6% along its $205.3 targets. The reason behind this divergence? Well, you should be able to answer that by now.

So now you see, Buffett gave you the initial hint, but it is the actual marketplace and analyst expectations that are literally confirming the thesis as to where the new growth can be found in the new upcoming cycle.