Why Buffett Dumped Apple and Bet Big on Domino’s Stock Instead

Key Points

• Buffett is reducing exposure to cyclical stocks like Apple and focusing on consumer staples like Domino's, reflecting concerns about inflation and economic slowdown.
• Domino's strong ROIC (over 60%) and inflation-proof business model align with Buffett’s strategy, making it a standout investment during uncertain times.
• Institutional selling of Apple and Buffett's moves align with warnings about overvalued markets, low future returns, and a potential slowdown in discretionary spending.

In a recent 13-F filing report, Warren Buffett’s positions were made public for the world to see and attempt to reverse engineer the thinking behind one of Wall Street’s best capital compounders. These filings provide investors with two key takeaways: an understanding of broader macro trends and how they are reflected in specific businesses.

By analyzing Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s NYSE: BRK.B recent selling activity, new acquisitions, and its substantial cash reserves, a clear trend emerges, offering insights into the potential direction of the United States economy. It seems as though Buffett is shifting toward the consumer staples sector while pulling back from consumer discretionary investments.

So why did Buffett sell out of Apple Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL and redeploy this capital into Domino’s Pizza Inc. NYSE: DPZ (and other names)? Before digging deeper into these two specific decisions, here’s the broader Buffett portfolio and what the recent shuffles have to say about broader markets.

Buffett’s Latest Stock Moves Hint at a Strategic Play

After buying into shares of Ulta Beauty Inc. NASDAQ: ULTA two quarters ago, Buffett and his team have suddenly decided to sell up to 96% of this relatively new investment. But when considering his exit from Capital One Financial Co. NYSE: COF, the picture becomes clearer.

Buffett is diminishing his exposure to cyclical stocks as if he expects a slowdown in the broader economy. In fact, Warren Buffett's 1999 warning about overvalued markets, tied to high valuations and low interest rates, remains relevant today as the Buffett Indicator signals caution. This broader perspective will help investors analyze the rationale behind Buffett's decision to reduce his Apple holdings and invest in Domino's instead.

Consumer Slowdown Tests Apple’s Resilience Despite Its Brand Power

Apple stock has many strengths, including its brand recognition and market share, as well as stability and predictability in its business model due to its subscription divisions and sustainable demand for its physical products.

However, based on his current outlook, Buffett likely finds it unjustifiable to hold onto the stock. One reason that could be is his expectation of higher inflation hitting the United States economy, aligning with his broader warning about the S&P 500 underperforming in the coming years. 

Goldman Sachs analysts also view the market this way, forecasting only 3% annual returns for the next decade and others on Wall Street seem to agree. Wellington Management Group has decided to decrease its holdings in Apple stock by 7.2% in the past quarter. This sign of lost confidence from institutional investors combined with Buffett’s selling is not a good sign for the stock's future today.

Wall Street Joins Buffett in Betting Big on Domino’s Pizza Stock

Buffett’s new position in Domino’s is now worth up to $550 million. But why he would pick a consumer discretionary stock when his outlook on the sector led him to reduce his Apple holdings?? The fundamental difference is in the product.

While people struggling with inflation might think twice about buying electronics from Apple and keeping their subscription services, pizza and takeout are often synonymous with saving money, a theme that will overtake all others in the coming cycle.

Wall Street analysts liked this idea and gave Buffett a sounding board of approval for his latest pick. Those from Loop Capital reiterated their Buy rating and kept a price target as high as $559 a share.

To prove these new views right, Domino’s Pizza stock would have to shoot for a 29.8% rally from where it trades today, not to mention get close to a near-all-time high for the company. Institutional buyers also approve of this idea, like those at FMR LLC, which increased their Domino’s Pizza holdings by 16.3% to a high of $941.9 million today, or 6.3% ownership in the company.

As a matter of fact, one of the most compelling factors Buffett likely saw in Domino's Pizza, aside from its inflation-resistant nature, is its exceptional business model. The brand is so robust and well-managed that the company is able to generate over 60% in returns on invested capital (ROIC), one of the foundational pillars that allow for a stock to compound its value.