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GXO Logistics: Time to Buy the Dip for the Rip in 2025

Forklift truck in warehouse or storage and shelves with cardboard boxes. 3d illustration - stock image

Key Points

  • GXO Logistics is one of the largest contract logistics operators in the world, offering distribution, warehouse, supply chain, and end-to-end transportation solutions.
  • GXO Logistics clients include Apple, Boeing, Nike, H&M, Whirlpool, and Verizon Communications.
  • GXO's stock surged over 15% in October 2024 on takeover speculation but collapsed in December on rumors that it turned down buyout offers and also on the announcement of its CEO retiring in 2025.
  • 5 stocks we like better than GXO Logistics.

GXO Logistics Today

GXO Logistics, Inc. stock logo
GXOGXO 90-day performance
GXO Logistics
$49.38 -0.10 (-0.20%)
(As of 12/11/2024 ET)
52-Week Range
$46.07
$63.33
P/E Ratio
54.87
Price Target
$66.33

GXO Logistics Inc. NYSE: GXO is one of the largest contract logistics companies in the transportation sector. They enable businesses to manage distribution operations and supply chains better, utilizing GXO's vast global network of warehouses and distribution networks. GXO has the advantage of scale and technology that utilizes artificial intelligence (AI), automation, robotics, and data analytics combined with end-to-end transportation solutions. These solutions are used by well-known brands including Apple Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL, Nike Inc. NYSE: NKE, Verizon Communications Inc. NYSE: VZ and Boeing Co. NYSE: BA. GXO competes with FedEx Inc. NYSE: FDX and UPS Inc. NYSE: UPS.

Takeover Speculation Surge and Rejection as CEO Retires

Investors have been on a rollercoaster ride since October 2024. With such strong assets and reputation, GXO was rumored to have been approached by many bidders looking to merge. GXO shares surged over 22% in late October on takeover rumors. However, on December 3, 2024, Bloomberg reported that the company turned down buyout offers and decided to remain independent.

Additionally, GXO's CEO Malcolm Wilson will be retiring in early 2025. This sent shares into a tailspin, collapsing 16% back to its October levels prior to takeover rumors. It's worth noting that GXO hasn't made any comments to confirm takeover offers or rejections; it's just that its CEO is retiring.

Investors are not only disappointed that the company didn't get bought out but also that its leader is stepping down, which is an odd series of events. Usually, a CEO may step down ahead of a company being acquired. Still, if the company decides to pursue a standalone strategy, it's expected that the CEO will remain in charge, not step down.

GXO Decides to Go It Standalone   

GXO Logistics Stock Forecast Today

12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$66.33
34.33% Upside
Moderate Buy
Based on 12 Analyst Ratings
High Forecast$83.00
Average Forecast$66.33
Low Forecast$50.00
GXO Logistics Stock Forecast Details

GXO Logistics is often the acquirer rather than the acquired. It was a spinoff from XPO Inc. NYSE: XPO in 2021 to separate its transportation and logistics businesses. GXO reported third-quarter 2024 EPS of 79 cents, beating consensus analyst estimates by 2 cents. Revenues rose 27.8% YoY to $3.16 billion, beating consensus estimates for $3.01 billion. The company signed $226 million in new business, bringing the total to nearly $750 million in annualized revenue and hitting record levels of new business in 2024. Its sales pipeline increased 30% YoY to $2.4 billion, hitting two-year highs.

GXO CEO Malcolm Wilson commented, "We see increasing demand for e-commerce capacity. This long-term structural tailwind has been a key growth driver for us over the past five years. More than half of our new wins in the third quarter originated from e-fulfillment, and we also opened the largest e-commerce warehouse in France in partnership with one of our long-term customers.”

GXO Logistics Reaffirmed Guidance

For the full-year 2024, GXO Logistics reaffirmed EPS guidance of $2.73 to $2.73 versus $2.77 consensus estimates. The company reaffirmed organic revenue growth of 2% to 5%.

GXO Forms a Descending Triangle Breakdown

A descending triangle pattern is comprised of descending (falling) upper trendline resistance, which represents lower highs on bounce attempts. The flat-bottom lower trendline support represents bidders holding the line at a price support. The breakdown occurs when the stock collapses through the lower trendline support.

GXO Logistics GXO stock chart

GXO commenced the descending upper trendline off the $63.33 swing high hit during the takeover speculation. As the excitement died down, each bounce made lower highs against the $57.93 lower trendline support. The company made no comments pertaining to the rumors. GXO gapped down from $57.93 to $53.03 on December 4, 2024, after the Bloomberg report that they turned down bidders to remain independent, as well as the company's CEO retirement news. GXO shares collapsed over 15% in the following days, returning to the levels they had been trading at in October before the takeover rumors. The weekly anchored VWAP is at $52.65. The daily RSI has fallen into oversold territory at the 25-band. Fibonacci (Fib) pullback support levels are at $49.35, $47.41, $45.73, and $43.81.  

GXO’s average consensus price target is $66.33, implying a 33.33% upside and its highest analyst price target is $83.00. Ten analysts have rated it a Buy, and three have given it a Hold. The stock has a 2.3% short interest.

Actionable Options Strategies: Bullish investors can consider using cash-secured puts at the Fib pullback support levels to buy the dip. If assigned the shares, then writing covered calls at upside Fib levels executes a wheel strategy for income.

Should you invest $1,000 in GXO Logistics right now?

Before you consider GXO Logistics, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and GXO Logistics wasn't on the list.

While GXO Logistics currently has a "Moderate Buy" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.

View The Five Stocks Here

Jea Yu
About The Author

Jea Yu

Contributing Author

Trading Strategies

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Companies Mentioned in This Article

CompanyMarketRank™Current PricePrice ChangeDividend YieldP/E RatioConsensus RatingConsensus Price Target
GXO Logistics (GXO)
4.5978 of 5 stars
$49.38-0.2%N/A54.87Moderate Buy$66.33
Apple (AAPL)
4.7152 of 5 stars
$246.49-0.5%0.41%40.54Moderate Buy$236.78
Verizon Communications (VZ)
4.8017 of 5 stars
$42.00-0.7%6.45%18.10Hold$46.46
NIKE (NKE)
4.7461 of 5 stars
$78.83+2.7%2.03%22.59Moderate Buy$95.39
Boeing (BA)
3.7505 of 5 stars
$165.96+1.1%N/A-12.87Moderate Buy$190.11
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